Middle set on Monotone flop OOP (200NL 6 max)

[LuparFiend]

Villain is running at 41/10/3. I've only been at the table for 15 hands or so, and we haven't tangled yet. When I see an UTG raise from someone who only has a PFR% of 10%, I really narrow down their range, so I didn't 3bet. The turn card is obviously bad, but his Full pot size bet confused me. Would AK fire a full pot bet? Would QQ? I really didn't think so. I figured him to have maybe AA, KK, or something like AQ or AJ with the Ace of spades.

Should I raise big here? Or call and hope another spade doesnt hit?

Ahhhhh


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

Hero (SB): $416.05
BB: $228.80
UTG: $171.25
CO: $382.75
BTN: $51.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt (5 Players)
UTG raises to $6.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $5.00, BB folds

Flop: ($14) (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00

Turn: ($26) (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $28.00, Hero ???


Thanks

[EscapePlan9]

[BKAZ]

Your behind AK AQ and KQ spades JJ and AK at this point and less likely other AXs (would he raise this hand OOP at 10%PFR with AXs , not likely)

He would likely also raise AA, KK, QQ, AJ, maybe 99 and 88, some of the braodway SC's.

your ahead of over half of these possible hands and have a good draw to bust his flush and straight possibilities so bet 80 and call a push over the top here.

[Twelver]

I almost always lead the flop on this type of board, and if I don't it's b/c I am planning on check raising. You are letting him see the turn way to cheap if he does have the .

Also, 15 hands isn't near enough to get a read on someone so I wouldn't look to much in to his stats.

[shamdonk]

[LuparFiend]

[black_knight6]

[LuparFiend]

I really didn't like how I played this hand. I played really really weak/tight. Thanks for all the comments. I needed it on this hand.

I just called the turn bet. The river was a blank .

I checked again, and he fired out another full pot sized bet. I felt that the chance of him having a hand that I beat was better than him having AK, QQ, or JJ (or some other random flush hand), so I called.

He showed for two pair and I won the pot.

[iceman5]

[T-Rod]

[SinkRox]

[Devbert]

[shamdonk]