Forgot I had posted this
Villain doesn't show down much; people fold to his aggression. I've seen one set, which might have been later in this session. He flops it and puts in a pot raise over the top of my bet on a monotone flop, then folds to my 3-bet. He frequently bets the pot on the river. Sometimes its bluffy, sometimes not. This was the first time I saw him chk mini-raise. His usual play is to make a psb. So, that was puzzling.
Though this is the dreaded c/c c/r mini sequence, I do have aces up, which added to the dilemma. I didn't bet the pot on the flop, because I wanted to put out a probe bet and see what was out there. I make aces up on the turn, so I think I'm way ahead. I don't want to bet the pot here, since a J will be more likely to fold and I want a J to call. When he raises me, I have to reassess that, which led to the problem.
Since villain has played so many hands with me, he's probably seen me fold to the c/c c/r mini line. So could be a bluff here with something like a small pp or weak J. He will push people off hands on the river. My basic problem in this hand is trying to weigh the bet pattern (=monster) against his style of play, our history, the board, and the fact that I also have a decent hand. I let the betting pattern win the day here, but was not sure about it.
In retospect, I think I should have called. The only hands I can really put him on, given his style of play that beat me are 33 or T9. AJ, 88, JJ are pretty unlikely.
"A big day in my career was the day I realized that tomorrow I would still be a tilter." -- Tommy Angelo