NL200 AK from SB

[Semillon]

Button is a decent tag, how does this look? Anyone give up on the flop?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $228
CO: $279.25
Button: $200
Hero: $506.70
BB: $200

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with
2 folds, Button raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: ($50, 2 players)
Hero bets $35, Button calls.

Turn: ($120, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($120, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $141, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $141 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: $120

[black_knight6]

I certainly don't give up...I prolly default to your line tho...river is a fold.

[GodlikeRoy]

I call river.

[Semillon]

I imagine the villains most likely range is: AK, AQ, QQ-TT. I guess maybe he could have AJ if he just had a brain explosion preflop.

I am head of JJ only, split with the unlikely AK, how do you justify a call roy? A strong made hand would bet less looking for a call?

[Devbert]

[Stoneburg]

[GodlikeRoy]

[Stoneburg]

Yeah but I can't figure out what a decent TAG would *call* with on that flop that doesn't have Hero beat. Surely an underpair will give up and the only draw is to a gutshot.

I think TAG had AQ or TT here and was semi-slowplaying the turn, hoping that Hero would either bet or call the river.

[GodlikeRoy]

I dunno, I think if he had one of those hands then he is already slowplaying the flop by not raising and risking a J or K to come off and lose him the pot (which is already fairly large so there isn't too much reason to slowplay). If he did this then I find it unlikely for him to also slowplay on the turn.

I'm not exactly sure what he would have but I think if he has AK then he's betting most of the time, if he has AJ (low chance I agree but not entirely out of the question) then he will also bet some % of the time. I think he could also try to 'push us off' our hand (thinking we have KK, JJ, etc) with a hand like JT or something - knowing that we most likely either a) have a hand which will fold if he bets but he would have won at showdown had he checked or b) have a better hand which would fold if he bets but he would lose at showdown had he checked. I don't think we (hero) often has a hand that he will bet the flop with then check two streets which can also call a shove AND beat JT. Ie, if we're never showing up with two-pair or better here so our hand is basically defined as either Ax where x =/= a card on the board, something like KK/JJ, or KQ/JQ/etc, or something completely out of the ordinary like 67s. Not a single one of these hands can *really* call a shove (except AK, maybe, but we even then we don't always play it this way) but a tonne of these hands would beat a hand like JT or JQ at showdown. Even if he has JJ it would probably be good for him to shove.

Now a lot of players aren't capable of turning a hand with a semblance of showdown value into a bluff given the information they receive during a hand is played, but a lot can, and the way players are improving I would say that more and more players are capable of it. Given that the OP is a "decent TAG" this could easily mean he is a really great player except the OP hasn't seen anything spectacular from him - only that he hasn't made any glaring mistakes.

So take that, coupled with the fact that he is unlikely to call the flop AND check the turn with 2pair+ and I think a strong case could be made for calling. Also the fact that a while back everyone and their mother thought "zomg he overbet the river, he has the nuts!" now quite a few people are overbetting as bluffs.

Now of course if we knew that he knew this and had a wide shoving range on the river, then we should be calling not only with AK but also with AK, KK, KQ, etc. Now though if HE knows this, he should be valuebetting his AJ hands. Now if we know that, we should be folding more. But if he knows that, he should be bluffing more. But if we know that, we should be calling more. Etc etc.

Basically I think the opponent is on the level of thinking that would make calling this river bet +EV with AK given the exact circumstances of this particular hand.

[Semillon]