Analysis idea

[Aisthesis]

I guess what got me onto this idea is being down over the last 3k hands at the 1/2 on Stars, so I wanted to figure out whether it's variance, bad play or what. So, I came up with the following idea for a spreadsheet to get some idea of what's actually happening.

The first 3 pages (worksheet, for those who know Excel) analyse PF raises and are pretty simple. I just take my own raises in 3 cases and look at the results for the hand. The 3 different cases are: 1) Raises from the blinds, 2) Raises from UTG and UTG+1, 3) "LP" raises (which I'm counting as all other positions). I just want to get some idea of whether the EP raises are profitable or not. In actuality, some sort of comparison of result vs. EV would be nice, but I think it would be almost impossible to make that comparison from the time of the raise.

The other sheets are a bit more elaborate and involve post-flop play (and do compare results to EV, to the extent that one can actually calculate that). Here are the sheets:

1) Made hands. This will includes any bet on top 2 or better.

2) Semi-bluffs. This will include any bet on 13 or better nut outs.

3) Bluffs. Any bet on less than top 2 or 13 nut outs.

4) Calls. This includes all CALLS on flop and turn as well as river calls. The quality of my own hand doesn't matter in terms of putting it in this category (rather than category 1 or 2).

Now, on each of these, I have the following columns set up (in addition to some columns to identify site and stakes): Hand, board, players (number of players in the hand), position, result, EV (I think I can put a number to this post-flop), EV-result (to check for variance), category (actually subcategory, like top 2 for value bet, or J-high flush, etc.), and "better" (this is if another line would clearly have been better knowing opponents' cards).

What would also be nice would be a laydown worksheet, but I don't see how one could set that up in any useful way since you almost never know what villain actually had, so you don't really know whether it was a good or bad laydown.

Anyhow, this whole thing obviously doesn't incorporate everything (like whether you even decided to see a flop), but it's about the best I've been able to come up with to see what actually happened during a session and what plays are profitable.

Any suggestions?

My plan is to fill out the chart after each session, and I hope it won't prove so tedious as to be more than I'm willing to do as time goes by.

[pokerzen]

[Aisthesis]

[pokerzen]

[Aisthesis]

[Aisthesis]

[pokerzen]

I haven't forgotten about this Ais ... I'm just letting it roll around in my head for a couple of days.

[Ojingo]

[Pok 7's]

I actually think Oj has a very good point here, and something worthy of consideration. Of course I don't have the experience of most/all of the PLO players here, but PLO is a post flop game no? The game differs so much from something like Hold Em, that trying to analyze PF actions is very difficult. For example you can find starting hands chards and whatnot for HE online, but from what I can tell a starting hand/position chart seems almost impossible to create. You can find LHE charts showing hand EV for basically every hand from every position against random hands.

But PLO has so many combinations and possiblities and there's very few hands that are favorities over others. About the only thin I've every found covering preflop play is the Hutchinson system, which several people have pointed out flaws to it.

Just out of curiousity though Ais, have you run your sessions through the EV program that Roy posted a link to a litttle while ago in AG? Seems like that would accomplish most of what you're trying to calculate wouldn't it?

[Ojingo]

[Aisthesis]

[Aisthesis]

[Aisthesis]