Seemingly simple EV question

[iceman5]

How much more money did I win / lose in these 2 hands than I deserve EV wise? I went over my formula at length with Shobute and a couple others who disagreed with my formula. I was finally persuaded that I was wrong, but now after looking at massive pokerEV data, I think I was right all along.

#1) I get all in with AK vs AJ. We both have $200 to stat and there is $15 in blinds in the pot. For ease of math, we'll say Im a 70-30 favorite.

#2) I get all in with AA vs KK. Same stacks and blinds. Total pot is $415 and I put in $200 of it.

I win hand #1 and lose hand #2.

I dont care about anything except my final money result of these 2 hands was as compared to what it should be if we played then a million times....answer should be in $$ not percentages or anything like that.

[Cooper]

My 5 cents:

1, Who posted the blinds ? You and him, someone else ? If someone else posted blinds and you both have 200 behind:
Edited
Pot 2*200 + 15 * pot quity (.71) = 294$
EV=+$94 (Since we paid 200 to win 294)

2.
From what I understand this is the same pot situation as in 1 ?:
Pot 2*200 + 15 * pot quity(.82) = $340..

EV=+$140. (Since we paid 200 to win 340)

Summary
hand 1: you win 215
hand 2: you loose 200
So you ended +15$

EV says you should have ended +234$

[cshultz]

I think its like this:

ev hand 1 = 0.7 * 415 - 0.3 * 200 = $230.50

ev hand 2 = 0.82 * 415 - 0.18 * 200 = $304.30

total expected ev = + $534.80

[Cooper]

[cshultz]

[iceman5]

[Cooper]

Ok, I can agree with cshultz, I found the following formula which seems to be the most commonly used:

EV = [(equity in the pot) x (pot size)] + [(1 - equity in the pot) x (bet to call)]

which would yeild Hand 1:

0.7 * 215 + 0.3 * -200 = $90.5

Exactly as cshultz said, so I'll add my vote to your numbers.

PS. My previous formula was EV = [(equity in the pot) x (pot size)] - bet to call, I have seen this being used in forums but I'm not that sure it's correct.

/Cooper

[iceman5]

This is how Shobute had me doing it. I insisted it was wrong but was finally convinced that he was right but its now obvious that either he was wrong or I somehow misunderstood what he was saying.

#1) Total pot is $415. I win it 70% of the time so if the pot were split up equity wise at the time of the all in, I would get $290.50 pushed back to me and the hand would be over.

#2) Total pot again is $415. We'll use 82% this time. I get 82% * $415 or $340.30

So in total I should have $630.80, but since I lost hand #2, I have $415 from hand #1 and nothing from hand #2. I have $215.80 less than I should have.

So I get $215.80 in Icy Bucks. After seeing cshultz's answer of $222.50 which is close enough to my answer for my tastes, maybe I AM doing it right.

So how the hell does PokerEV show me with $1500ish Icy Bucks and I show $3000?

I dont expect it to be exact because there are some hands that I dont calculate like:

I shove with 99 into a 864 board and the other guy has 75. I can still win but am bascially drawing dead. No need for me to count this one. Its a small amount and I will probably be on both sides of this spot enough for it to even out long term.

How can pokerEV be HALF what my records show? Im not so sure pokerEV doesnt have a bug in it, but on the other hand, my $3000 seems to high. If I am really $3000 too low in my actual results, Im going to make a killing playing like this.

Thats around $190 / hr on an adjusted basis.

[T-Rod]

[excession]

#1) I get all in with AK vs AJ. We both have $200 to stat and there is $15 in blinds in the pot. For ease of math, we'll say Im a 70-30 favorite.

You win $215 70% of the time, and lose $200 30%;
So your expected return is (0.7*$215)-(0.3*$200) = +$90.5 each time you play this hand.

#2) I get all in with AA vs KK. Same stacks and blinds. Total pot is $415 and I put in $200 of it.

This is 82/18 so
(.82x$215)-(.18*$200) = +$140 each time you play the hand.


You played the hand once each - so your expected EV is +$230.50

Your actual winnings were only $15.


You have $215.50 sklanksy/icy bucks to spend on complaining about it !

[iceman5]

[shobute]