HU vs GLR flop trips ($200plo)

[Spank_her_Pair]

Seat 1: GodlikeRoy ($426.10)
Seat 6: Spank ($217.30)


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Spank
GodlikeRoy raises to $6 OTB
Spank calls $4

*** FLOP ***
Spank checks
GodlikeRoy bets $6
Spank raises pot to $30
GodlikeRoy min-raises to $60
Spank calls $30

*** TURN ***
Spank checks
GodlikeRoy bets $132
I have $151.30 left

What would you do on the flop? ANd if you just called like I did whats the turn play?

[Aisthesis]

[Ojingo]

That minreraise on the flop is curious, and you have to know your opponent a bit in order to interpret it correctly. But unless there is a lot of metagame going on, you show strength by checkraising, and unless you think he has a lot of reasons to put you on less than a 4 here, he would probably try to get it in with a (necessarily vulnerable) full house.

So a decent % of the time I'd say based on the flop action that he has either a hand like A4xx or something like 3456, or 4567 maybe with a heart draw. Again I'm not sure if that's how he'd play those hands but assuming that the game is aggressive enough so that he doesn't think you'd fold trips there is no reason for him not to push the flop unless he has, say AK42 with hearts (worst case scenario for you).

Of course, the minreraise may also be a tester; he may well have the same hand, but is hesitant to shove since you may be full.

Now, I'd probably just shove the flop unless I have a strong read that he must be full. I don't mind leading out on the flop, so that a reraise would commit you, but heads up you need to checkraise a certain % of hands, so if this is part of keeping that frequency high enough, fine.

As played, you should also consider leading the turn. If he has a small boat or the same hand as you then that puts a lot of pressure on him and he may well be the one making a mistake. I'm not really thinking about folding, although it sucks to put in your stack if you only have 6 outs.

[Felonius_Monk]

Lead the flop.

[briachek]

[Spank_her_Pair]

Agree leading the flop is a very viable option... however, I dont think i had lead any flops in the match yet (maybe 1).
GLR raises most buttons. I call with reasonable hands. I miss flop. I check fold flop. That is how the match had been going up to that point.

[GodlikeRoy]

[Aisthesis]

results?

before seeing them, I'll try an assessment. I'm still not sure whether it's a laydown or not.

Here are the hands I think he can have:

1) 22. You still have 10 outs (=25% equity).

2) 42. You have 9 outs and roughly 25% equity.

3) 4Q. You have 6 outs and only like 15% equity.

4) 4QQ. You're dead but this is a longshot. I don't think he has that very often.

5) A4. You normally have 50% equity unless he has flush draw.

6) Some 4 that's behind but he has flush draw and/or straight draw. You should be marginally ahead here.

7) possibly, possibly (not sure just how aggro Roy is) no 4 at all but just flush and straight draw. You're significantly ahead here, since you take away 3 flush cards. I guess 3h5h67 or something is possible. The A isn't an out for him, but he still has 9 straight outs plus I think 5 additional flush outs for 13. Yes, you're noticeably ahead here, but I also think this one is fairly rare. Also in this category is something like overpair with flush draw, but I really view that one as getting close to insane aggression... He has to know you have a 4 here.

I also think it's clear that it's push or fold since you only have 20 left after calling, so you need more than 33% equity, so just short of 40% equity.

I think all of these possibilities are fairly real. The main question on push or fold is how often he has Q4, or worse still, AQ4. Also, if he's full more than 50% of the time, I think you have to fold.

Roughly: If he's not full, you're for the most part 50-50 and maybe occasionally close to 60-40 favorite (he has just flush draw with his 4 or has the wrap). If he is full in one way or another, then you have at best 25% equity. Average the 2 and you're still around 37%, which is about what you need to push.

[Aisthesis]

I guess one other scenario: He has some 4 with <A and no other draw. That also seems pretty remote after this action, although your turn check does show some weakness...

[Spank_her_Pair]

[Ojingo]

[GodlikeRoy]

What would you do if you had something like 456T?

[Aisthesis]

Well, any 4 is a strong hand, but back to that in a moment.

While your hand is certainly strong, I just can't help but believe Roy is full near 100% after this action. That's been my experience in HU matches even vs. aggro players, and, while it sounds like Roy is pretty aggro, I don't think he's moronically aggro.

Second, if Roy is CBing pretty much always to checks, I like the CR better. imo the CR is a preventive tool only useful vs. players who are taking too many stabs. Sounds like this is Roy in this match.

Here's what the hand really looks like: Roy CBs and could have anything. You CR, and he mini-raises. At this point, I think he has a 4 or 22. When you call, you do, too (given his play, I also CR QQ-AA, decent heart draw, etc.). I'd consider pushing your hand to that bet since you have the nut kicker, but with the T-high, I just call--unlikely the kicker is good, but you have outs.

Now the turn. Ok, you check, and if you didn't push the flop, that's appropriate. If you're going to CRAI, then I think betting out the turn is way better. Whether or not he'll lay down (I doubt it with his hand), you can at least rep the Q and possibly get a laydown out of a split pot. I do think Roy might at this point consider folding A4.

Instead, you tell him you're not full (which is perfectly legit, too, since you aren't) with a check. Now he has some options. He knows you have a 4 and hence are very unlikely to fold, to begin with. So, I think he really can bet A4 here but honestly, I don't see betting anything less than that. Just counting unknown cards, there are 3 A's unaccounted for, 3 Q's, 3 2's, and 3 22's. Given his very wide raising range, maybe it tips the scales a little in favor of the A's, but without that discount, he's full 75% of the time, and you're 50-50 the other 25%. I think it's a fold at that point. If you are going to play for stacks unimproved, then I think you have to push the flop or lead into him on the turn, both of which I think are decent plays.

[briachek]