NL $200 nut flush draw OOP

[Mr Sauceman]

Villain is about 22/12/3 after 30 hands no good reads, havent seen him do anything out of the ordinary.




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) from (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($752.30)
CO ($202.05)
Button ($248.30)
SB ($256.85)
BB ($108)
UTG ($189)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, CO calls $8, 2 folds, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($25) 5, Q, 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, CO raises to $42, BB folds, Hero raises to $150, CO raises to $194.05, Hero calls $44.05.

Turn: ($413.10) A (2 players)

River: ($413.10) J (2 players)

Final Pot: $413.10

Results in white below:
Hero has Kh Ah (one pair, aces).
CO has 7h 7c (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: CO wins $413.10.


I thought this was pretty straightforward during the hand, figuring i had decent fold equity and had at least 9 outs. But im not sure how much my opponent is gonna fold here with his range, i doubt that at this level this is a bluff, and i think im gonna get called all in here with Aq or Kq here.

Thoughts on my play?

[kokomo44]

This is a simmilar concept to my 'massive draws vs massive nits' threads.

Against a NIT you have to realize that you have 0 fold equity becasue they have a monster. so your only drawing to flush outs and have to dodge the board pairing.

In this hand your only 25% to win.

If villan had AQ your 46%
same with KQ your 46%

This would be EV+ against a LAG ass Fish not so much against a TAGggy villan.


EDIT: This is EV- agaisnt a TAGGY good player.

[shamdonk]

[Semillon]