Counting overcard outs

[Jossnaz]

Hi
Is there a rule of thumb for counting overcard outs?
For example divide outs by 2 when there's a fd on board/paired board ?
thanks


hero posts small blind [$0.5].
berni001 posts big blind [$1].
soldi1 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Ac Qs ]
soldi1 checks.
Birger86 raises [$2].
TurtleMK calls [$2].
danroon calls [$2].
hero raises [$2.5].
berni001 folds.
soldi1 folds.
Birger86 calls [$1].
TurtleMK calls [$1].
danroon calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 10c, 8c, 7h ]
hero bets [$1].
Birger86 raises [$2].
TurtleMK calls [$2].
danroon folds.
hero calls [$1].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5s ]
hero checks.
Birger86 bets [$2].
TurtleMK calls [$2].
hero calls [$2].
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
Birger86 bets [$2].
TurtleMK calls [$2].
hero calls [$2].






and



Koalaber posts small blind [$0.5].
gimil13 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Qs As ]
KeyDeath folds.
hero raises [$2].
joshaas folds.
descapo calls [$2].
Koalaber calls [$1.5].
gimil13 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, 2s, 2h ]
Koalaber checks.
hero bets [$1].
descapo calls [$1].
Koalaber folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ]
hero checks.
descapo bets [$2].
hero folds.

[Marm]

I had a great little essay on this idea a while ago, and was just about to post/publish it when SSH came out and said all the same shit basically. Now I don't even know where to find it. Dammit.

To weigh your overcards (and bluffing) outs, just figure out how often they will be good. Lets say in hand one you think (to make the math easy) That Q's or A's will win it for you 40% of the time. Since we need to eliminate the Qc, that leaves 5 out, multiply that by 40%, you get two outs. or about 5% or 19-1.

But what if you think a flush on the board will allow you to steal this pot X% of the time? Not a realistic scenario with two other in, but if you had been HU from the Flop on, AcXc (with x being face) could be played this way. If you think they will fold to the 3 flush 20%, then take your 2 Overs outs, add that to the 10 club 'outs' left x 20%, you get 4 outs total, for 10% or 9-1.

This use of bluffing outs is difficult to use in limit since by the river the pot odds are usually good enough for them to call. In NL you could make a bet big enough to make them want to go away. In limit you really need to have a read that they have a good read on you, and that your bluff fits into a pattern that will scare them.

[Derf]

[Beavis68]

[antneye]

[McNemo]

[Jossnaz]

[growlers]

[McNemo]

SSH or SSHE stands for Small stakes hold ´em by Ed Miller.... the bible of low stakes limit hold ´em.

[Derf]