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NL100 - AJo, fold, call or push? - Live Poker Forums

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NL100 - AJo, fold, call or push?

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NL100 - AJo, fold, call or push?

Postby RedBarracuda » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:11 pm

I really really suck at these spots so some info would be nice.. What do I do here and why do I do it?

Villain is someone I am sure I would beat if ever I would see him in person... I have a history with him usually getting the best of 100% of our 50-50 shots and a couple of ones where he was at least 60-40 dog.
He is 29/20/1.70/31%WtSD/55%W$SD over 1200 hands

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.5/$1
5 players


Stack sizes:
SuperHero: $160.5
CO: $155
Button: $110.73
SB: $94.88
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (5 players) SuperHero is UTG with [Js] [Ah]
SuperHero raises to $4, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: [5h] [Kh] [9h] ($9.5, 2 players)
SuperHero bets $8, CO raises to $35, SuperHero ??

edited: AJo .. not AJs in title
Image
(6:35:48 PM) giantgrwth: I once beat up an attempted murderer, 25% true story
(6:35:59 PM) hard2tel45s: boxing?
(6:36:06 PM) giantgrwth: Yea
(6:36:14 PM) hard2tel45s: sweet
(6:36:30 PM) giantgrwth: He was my best friend too, lol
(6:36:48 PM) hard2tel45s: well u were in the crazy bin bro
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Postby k3nt » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:01 pm

OK so you've played with him a lot, how does he play? You could beat him, how so? What mistakes does he make?

You have 7 outs for sure. 9 outs a lot of the time. 11 outs or more pretty rarely (could he make this play with as little as [Kc][Qh]?). Does he ever make this raise and then fold to a push (i.e. do you have any FE at all?)

Is there any chance he's a bluffmonkey enough to be willing to lose the rest of his stack even if the 4th heart comes? I.e. is there any value at all to calling for your implied odds? Against most players there isn't, but if you know this guy then you know the answer to that one.

I think I let this one go unless I feel like I have some decent FE on a shove. I'm thinking you have about 35% to 40% equity here on average, and with only 12 bucks out of your 150 invested you're not committed. If you feel like you run goot against this guy then maybe it's a push for that reason ... but I hate superstitious reasoning like that.
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Postby RedBarracuda » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:22 pm

Image
(6:35:48 PM) giantgrwth: I once beat up an attempted murderer, 25% true story
(6:35:59 PM) hard2tel45s: boxing?
(6:36:06 PM) giantgrwth: Yea
(6:36:14 PM) hard2tel45s: sweet
(6:36:30 PM) giantgrwth: He was my best friend too, lol
(6:36:48 PM) hard2tel45s: well u were in the crazy bin bro
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Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:38 pm
Location: Croatia

Postby Triple B » Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:36 pm

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Postby bdon22 » Fri Oct 12, 2007 2:17 am

I agree with k3nt. Most people will shut down if you JUST call there and the flush card hits so you can't really count on your implied odds. I think the only hand you can expect to pay you off in that situation is one with the [Qh] but that's being overly specific & optimistic. Sum that up with little FE and I think I can muck this and wait for a better spot for him to stack off with a TPTK type of hand. Then you won't want to punch him in the face, you'll want to caress him back into the game :twisted:
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