Need help with continuation bets

[MTPaid]

After about a month and a half of feeling like I can't get a c-bet to take down a pot when I miss anymore (like EVER), I ran it through Poker EV with some filters and came out with the following.

This is Full Ring
Filters: Since Sept 1 over 2 levels on 2 sites ($25 and $50 on Full Tilt and Stars)
1 - I PFR
2 - I miss (best hand high card or pair less than top pair)
3 - I c-bet

Results:


My normal c-betting rules:
1 - 1 opponent, c-bet almost all the time.
2 - 2 opponents, c-bet only non-dangerous looking board + opponent dependant. Say about 1/3 of time maybe.
3 - More than 3 opponents, I have to hit at least top pair
4 - C-bets are usually 2/3 to 3/4 pot, I also bet my made hands the same amount

I've actually tightened up quite a bit over this period to where I'm running at 22/8/2.4 WTSD 19

What adjustments do I need to make, if any? Or is it just a run I have to get through?

[bdon22]

[The Golden 1]

[MTPaid]

[RedBarracuda]

[Notorious_JC]

[bdon22]

In addition to whether or not to cbet or not, you should also think about betting different amounts.

For example when you're bluff cbetting, 1/2 pot or smaller bets would be ideal so you can take the pot down with minimal risk. Good opponents will catch on, however, and start pushing you off your nothing hands, so you need to balance this small cbet with value cbets as well.

Apply the same thing to your 3/4 and pot size cbets by mixing them up with your draws, pairs, and nothing hands and your opponents will always be on the guess as to whether or not you have it. You'll get paid off bigger this way in the long run as well.

[excession]

I ran this (33k hands) and got similar results. Interesting.

But then thinking about it why I am surprised to be losing money overall when I raised pre-flop, get called, miss and fire off a CB?

I can think of 2 reasons for CBetting:

1) It may lose you less money than check folding
2) Secondly if it enables you to get paid off more when you hit.

To work out if CBetting is overall +EV you need to deduct from the amount you are losing when you CB
A) the amount you would lose check-folding and
B).any extra you get paid off when you hit and are disguised (tricky to work that one out unless you play say 10k hands check-folding as a control)

Note that this implies that CBetting has more value the more attention your opponents are paying to you.

Now with PokerEV you can't filter for checking down/folding.

But the overall loss per hand when I PFR and miss is 1PTBB/100. When I filter for my CB's it''s only 0.4PTBB/100, so it's looks like CB'ing has a value right there without having to worry about the benefits of disguise.

[DoctorHandles]

[RedBarracuda]

[Jossnaz]

what limit do you play mt?

i think 22% vpip at fullring is too high. A friend plays winning 100$nl and 200$nl and he plays lots tighter. You can play a good winning strategy playing less than 16% vpip

[Xaston]

22% seems much too loose at FR but

A) I don't play FR
B) I'm not much of a PT stat guy.

WRT to continuation betting, it's pretty simple.

Continuation bet when you think he is likely to call with a hand YOU WANT HIM TO CALL WITH and/or fold a hand THAT YOU WANT HIM TO FOLD. Add a little bit of logical math and a little bit of metagame.

Viola!

[Semillon]

[MTPaid]

[k3nt]