by Aisthesis » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:06 pm
This is really two different topics but the second one is pretty short (albeit important). The hands are also from quite a while back, but I just started thinking about this again.
The read I'm talking about is what one might call "sudden silence," and it means they just hit a monster. Here are two examples (one a hand I posted a long time ago):
I have 65s in BB. Button, who is a pretty good player, says PF after some hesitation: "I have a big hand, but I'll just call." And he limps. I don't raise or anything.
The flop now comes 665!! Looks pretty sweet for me. I go ahead and check, partially due to the PF comments, which I think are honest. Sure enough, LP bets, and I flat call. Nothing to worry about, right? Prior to the bet, he says, "I may be beat, but I have to bet this." As soon as I call, he says, "Now I know I'm beat."
Turn comes 7. Sudden silence from villain. I bet something like $60 into the pot of $90 or so, and he now flat calls. No more comments. I check-call a big river bet, and he flips over 77.
This is obviously a HUGE hand for me to be folding, but I really think he tipped his hand so much and this read is so reliable that I should have folded.
Here's another example, this time against a bad player, but it amounts to exactly the same thing.
Bad player limjps in EP, and I limp with 65s again. Flop comes 578 (no flush draw for me). EP bets maybe $25, and I make it $80 or so. He calls.
Now the turn comes another 5, so I have trips. EP checks, and I bet again. He hems and haws around, saying, "Are you full already." Then finally calls, saying, "I don't think you're full."
River now a J, which was a blank as far as I was concerned. Now he suddenly shuts up and bets $200. Well, what happened to the fear of the full house? I call, and he shows JJ. Again, this is totally logical. Admittedly, the tell wasn't quite as elaborate as in the first case. But his actual hand is really the ONLY conceivable explanation of this turn of events. While I'd never lay down either of these in a vacuum (although the second one is easier to do), the table talk really has identified villain's hand in both case with deadly accuracy. I think this is also a laydown, really. In both cases, it assumes that you're willing to depart fairly radically from standard play of hands in light of this tell. I think it's so accurate that one should.
Now my question: This involves a tell that I can be giving myself. Here's the example I was thinking of:
I have KK in MP and flat call an EP raise. Flop comes something fairly raggedy, maybe T72 or something with a flush draw. EP, who chases way too much but is pretty good with reads, bets and I raise. He now asks: "What if the flush doesn't hit?" and I spontaneously kind of laughingly remark, "Then I'm in trouble."
Coupla things here: First, his table talk does say (at least the way he said it) that HE doesn't have the flush draw. He also knows that I can make this raise on a draw because he's seen it several times.
Second, however, my answer does tell him that I'm not on the flush draw. I pull this off in much too relaxed a manner, very casually, and I don't think I'd be able to pull of that same comment nearly as casually if I WERE on the flush draw. There's at least a moment's hesitation, and it's kind of strained, and I think this guy (whose people skills are very good) would immediately recognize that.
Anyhow, I think the best reponse here is just to give the blank stare with my hand. Admittedly, I get sucked out on often enough that I'm reasonably happy with a fold from him (he's a pretty loose raiser and could have had something like JTs, AQ, AK, AJ--JTs is really the only one where he does have some outs, and my opponents seem to hit those like 80% of the time or so--he could also have something 99 or 88-ish). He's drawing fairly thin of course, so I'm happy with the raise, but I really can be happy with a call against the odds, and there's absolutely no point in tipping one's hand.
My question really, is if anyone has anything better than just silence as response suggestion to players who try to elicit tells with table talk. I do think this guy's question was well-put, and I gave him the info he wanted. True, he gave me some, too, but there was no need for me to reciprocate.
I do note that for me anyway, it's extremely difficult to be casual if I say what my actual hand is most of the time--unless it's the nuts. Like, I could just always look at the board, determine the nuts, and say, "No, I have [in this case] TT."
I think I could pull that off casually even when I really do have TT. Anyhow, the response to these questions needs to be fairly quick, too, as going through an elaborate thought process also says something about your actual hand.
Ideas?