by Triple B » Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:09 pm
UTG (seems solid, maybe 20/15) raises to $16. I re-pop QQ to $50 in the CO. Then donks in the blinds (both VPIP > 50%) BOTH cold call! I type "lolololol" in the chat. Obv UTG calls at this point...so its 4 to the flop baby!
Flop ($200) 394 rainbow, they check to me.
Obv this is a good flop for me, and the player I am worried about (UTG) can't have AA/KK. So I bet $140 hoping a donk will pay me with JJ/TT/9x/whatever garbage they have. Donks both fold, UTG calls.
Turn 8. He checks, I check behind.
River 9. He shoves for $202 into the $480ish pot. I think its fairly unlikely he has a 9 (its in his range but not many hands raise UTG with a 9 in them) and one of his likely holdings on the flop (99) is very unlikely now. Since the cold callers came along he could definately have 33/44. 88 seems very remote/impossible.
Does my turn check ever induce a bet from TT/JJ here? Do I call because of pot odds? Do I call because I'm pot committed, and if so should I just have shoved the turn? Do I fold because villain knows I have an overpair so he must be able to beat it?