Flop bottom set ... uh-oh ($400 NL FR)

[k3nt]

I'm in the CO with [7s]. I have $416 to start the hand and Villain covers. I've been playing very very LAG preflop and my stack has been up and down a bunch.

UTG limps, Hero limps, SB completes, BB checks, all others fold.

Pot $16, [8h][7d].

SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $16, Hero raises to $39, SB folds, BB thinks and calls, UTG calls.

Pot $133, .

Check, check, Hero bets $111, BB checkraises all-in, UTG folds. BB has me covered so it's $262 more to call.

Villain seems basically solid but he is aggressive. He may be getting tired of me running over the table.

Snap call? Crying call? Fold?

[MBuckler]

[stickdude]

[Stoneburg]

Gah. At first I thought it was an easy call, but now it does kind of look like he was looking for a safe turn card with T9o. Either he was thinking about raising on the flop (because he has T9 or a bigger set), or he was thinking about folding because he has AJ or the flush draw.

Problem is, his play on the turn is consistent with all those hands. If he has T9 or a bigger set, he want to get it in, if he has AJ he wants to get it in, if he had the A-high flush draw, he's thinking "fuck it, either I am good or I have outs", and wants to get it in.

However, against that range you're still doing pretty good. Even without Axs against only the straight, bigger set or top two you've got 38% equity and only need about 30%. Of course, without AJ in the equation you're screwed, but I really think AJ is a likely candidate. And if you add Axs then you're doing really good.

Conclusion, the only time it is correct to fold is if you're very sure you're beaten now. If you think he could play AJ or Axs this way (one of them is enough), you should call. I think AJ is very likely and Axs is somewhat likely, so I think you should call (hit one outer if neccesary;))

[MBuckler]

[Triple B]

[MBuckler]

[Rhound50]

This is a crying call I really dont like the spot but you really cant fold here. I expect to see 9T here a good chunk of the time but as was said AJ /A8/A7also fit here and possibly as well. As the cool aid man said please raise this preflop. I have really grown to hate limped pots, it makes it so much harder to put people on hands.

[hard2tel]

i seriously doubt a semi decent player would cold call your raise on the flop with 9T with 2 hearts out there...he would get as much money in the pot as possible before scare cards come on the turn/riv. and he definately wouldnt have 88 here for basically the same reasons.

so yea i dunno what he has but i dont see us being behind here...although since u posted i guess im probably wrong.

[stickdude]

[Aisthesis]

agree completely with Stoney. As long as AJ is in there (and I can't help but believe it is), I think it's a call. Vs. 88 you're of course drawing dead, but you're almost as far ahead of AJ as you are behind to 88 (at least in EV terms, I'm pretty sure). You can't call if you know he has the made straight, and even worse 88, but I think his range is wider.

I also liked Stone's inclusion of AXs with flush draw. Probably wouldn't have occurred to me at the table, but I think that has to be in there in all probability, too.

Your LAG play also speaks even more for a call imo. I'm not excited about this one, as you're definitely behind quite a bit, but I don't think you should be laying this one down.

[Aisthesis]

I think hard2tel is right about T9 really needing to raise on the flop, at least as normal "best play"--in my current playing mode, I think with any T9 in BB I'd immediately push a full stack to your raise.

But that doesn't mean that people necessarily do it. I think a lot of players with T9 here will try waiting for a safe turn or something like that. I really do think you'll see T9 and 88 here quite often, but the other hands in the mix surely have to make up at least an additional 1/3 of villain's range.

[The Golden 1]

[NorthView]

[k3nt]

I was actually the BB in this hand.

And I agree the guy needed to raise those 7s preflop.

I am shocked that anybody can put the BB (me) on AJ here. Who checks TPTK on the flop out of position then flat calls a bet and a raise ... and then thinks he's good catching a miracle two pair? I would never ever play it that way. Would you?

Similarly Ax of hearts or a combo draw of some sort ... that would be a really dumb way to play it. You want to be betting/raising on the flop, not the turn. The CO's line just screamed set. Trying to push people off sets when you have only 1 street to catch up ... no thank you.

Anyway, the guy with 77 had been playing very LAG preflop, mostly following up his preflop raises with full pot bets whether he hit or missed. This smallish flop raise, then the big turn bet, made it clear he had a set. I was pretty clear he had the set on the flop, actually. So I thought this was the best way to play the flopped straight. Let your opponents make the biggest mistake you think they will make (quoting TUP from another hand where I flopped the nut straight) -- and calling a push on the turn is way worse for a set than calling it on the flop. If the board had paired on the turn I'm pretty sure I could have gotten away from this. If the board had 3-flushed I don't get his stack, but I do get a pretty good amount: I can bet it for an amount that I think he can call to chase his boat outs.

Apparently hard2tel thinks I'm not a half decent player based on this hand... guess I have a lot to learn.

But thanks for all the replies. I was pretty sure he couldn't get away from his hand once he had committed so much, but he did think for an awful long time before he called. Board didn't pair on the river.