Very low WtSD / W$SD (08)

[GooperMC]

These two stats have plagued me since I got PTO. I am now making money consistently (around 2BB/100) but I think that I could be doing much better if I can get these numbers up a little.

Overall for my last 15Kish hands here are my pertinent stats
- VP$IP: 17.1
- W$SF: 21.7
- WtSD: 28.1
- W$SD: 63.5
- PRF: 3.5
- FlopAgg: 1.3
- TurnAgg: 1.4
- RiverAgg: 1.8

Comparing these stats to players in my database with the 125 players in my database that have over 750 hands
River Agg: 119 of 125: top 5%ish
Turn Agg: 113 of 125: top 10%ish
Flop Agg: 110 of 125: top 10%ish
PFR: 100 of 125: top 20%ish
W$SD: 82 of 125: top 33%ish
WtSD: 7 of 125: bottom 5%ish
W$SF: 9 of 125: bottom 7.5%ish
VP$IP: 17 of 125: bottom 10%ish

This doesn’t make sense to me: If am playing less hands then everyone else then why am I winning less when I see a flop then players that will play any 4 cards. I have been trying to figure out why these stats as so low and so far have been unsuccessful. Here is what I have come up with so far.

1) I am playing too many tables and am misreading the board. I have been reviewing my old sessions and have only seen 1 instance of this in about 500 hands.

2) I am not drawing when I have odds. Again after going though those 500 hands I don’t think this is the case.

3) I am on a bad run of 15K cards. My W$SF have been hovering in the low 20s the since I have begun to track it (around 5K hands) and the vast majority of my long sessions (> 300 hands) have a W$SF in the low 20’s. At this point I think that it is much more likely that this is close to my true number then I am seeing a bad run of cards.

4) I am not making enough crying calls. If that was the case I think my W$SD would be higher then it is.

5) I am not playing aggressively enough to push out weak draws that could beat me. In low limit O8 I don’t think that you can push out bad players who are drawing (which is why we make money) and my aggression is much higher then players in my database who have much higher WtSD and W$SF.

6) I am undervaluing hand that I should be continuing with. This is possible but it just doesn't seem profitable to draw at the non-nuts (there are a few exceptions) or to continue with hands like top 2 on a coordinated board (when you don't have odds to draw at your boat)

7) My style of play is just much tighter then everyone, so this is just how it is going to be. My opponents are willing to draw without odds, and push bottom set on a coordinated board which I am not willing to do. However I have seen stats of some good players that I respect who have much higher WtSD and W$SF.

Does anyone else have a suggestion of what is going on or a suggestion of a way to find out?

[GooperMC]

[Felonius_Monk]

Here's what I think is up - MOST poor players in O8 will have a very high W$WSF and WtSD %ages because they chase one-way hands too much. How many times do you see someone make a poor play with some mediocre drawing hand only to catch a straight which they should've folded earlier, or play something like A4 for low and catch it when you were aggressively pushing your nut flush on the turn? I think most players win $ at showdown but quite often it's only the money they put in to chase one-way draws and weak lows.

Because quite often the final pot goes 2 or 3 ways in O8 you'll probably find that the weaker players who chase have a surprisingly high WTSD and W$WSF but the actual profit they make from those plays won't be that great. Have you checked your DB to see what WTSD and W$WSF your top 20 most winning players and top 20 most losing players have? Might give you a clue. Otherwise I wouldn't worry about it too much.

Monk
xxxxx

[GooperMC]

For players with > 1500 hands my top 10 have:
BB/100: 2.75
VP$IP: 26
PRF: 1.6
W$SD: 62
W$SF: 28
WtSD: 37
FAgg: .91
TAgg: 1.0
RAgg: 1.3
TotAgg: .5

For players with > 1500 hands my bottom 10 have:
BB/100: -2.5
VP$IP: 31.4
PRF: .74
WtSD: 35
W$SD: 60
W$SF: 24
FAgg: ..43
TAgg: .66
RAgg: 1.0
TotAgg: .3

So the winning players are going to SD almost 30% more then I am and only winning at SD a little less. Everytime that I do data analysis like this I am amazed that I making any money at all.

I agree that my opponents are willing to chase more then I am but they also see many more flops. My thinking is that for W$SF, the fishies willingness to to play any 4 cards and willingness to chase draws should offset each other. Furthermore I have 3 or 4 players in my database that I respect their play who have very similar stats to mine and a W$SF around the average.

I recently saw correlation anaylsis on BB/100 and the other main stats. Here is a summary of the results:
W$SF was by far the highest with around a .65 correlation coeff
W$SD was next with a correlation coeff of .5
VP$IP was a distant 3rd with a correlation coeff of .2

While .65 isn't a perfect correlation it is pretty good and much better then anything else.