Listening to your gut

[TheUnknownPlayer]

I'm playing in a loose aggressive $2/$5 NL game and have the table covered. UTG with $200 limps, a MP player with $450 whom I have great control over, raises to $20 which is typical for this game and I call in LP with KQo. It is folded around to UTG who calls - there is $65 in the pot. The flop comes JhQhJc and it is checked to the MP player who bets $10. I raise to $25 believing that the $10 bet means nothing by this player and I want to see where I'm at. Both players call and the pot now has $140 in it. At this point I'm concerned about UTG having a Jack. He called a bet and a raise - although they were small and he doesn't play too badly after the flop. I make up my mind that I'm going to check along if it's checked to me on the turn and take a free card. The turn comes the 8d and it's checked to me and I do in fact check along. The river brings a Queen and I've got Queens full. UTG comes alive and bets all-in $155, MP folds and I get this sick uneasy feeling in the pit of my stomach.

I go into the tank. He can only have one of two hands - Qx or JJ. Qx nets me half the pot - so I'm calling $155 to win $70 - or the pot is laying me about 0.45:1 hardly an enticing number but the likelihood of him having JJ is remote ... except my gut is screaming JJ. I've gone over the hand numerous times and I see nothing in his betting pattern that indicates JJ... yet that's what I put him on. Then I tried to figure out a reason to call. I'm suppose to call if I figure he's 11:5 to have the Qx... but the number wasn't that good. If he had $300 or more in front of him - it's an easy fold but I was lulled into a call by the 'only' $155.

Long story short - I did call and he showed me quads. That about sealed my night - I quit the game shortly thereafter having blown the laydown. I'm disgusted and am hitting the sack. I'll have more hands later...

TUP

[iceman5]

I wouldnt beat myself up over that. No way Im folding.
The only question I have is why would call a $20 raise with KQ?

[Jav]

I agree with iceman. At least at the games I play in, the player would make that move with a single jack more often than you'd see quads. Though in this circumstance I think that was a great bet by your opponent.

But I won't play KQ for a raise, even on a table where I feel I have good control. Do you make this call very often? I'm curious what the table conditions were that made this call okay, or if you just had good confidence that you could outplay most of the table post-flop so you were willing to call with that hand? (And just because you lost this hand doesn't mean you couldn't outplay your opponents most of the time...)

[TheUnknownPlayer]

Hi guys,

I wasn't real clear in the way that I said it but when I said, "..a MP player... raises to $20 which is typical for this game..." I didn't mean that when a person raised - they typically raised to $20 - I meant that every hand was raised...and typically that raise was to $20.

In a game where the only question regarding a pre-flop raise is, "Who's turn is it", raising standards go way down - and so then do calling standards.

So no, I don't typically call a raise with KQo but in a game where every hand is raised pre-flop it figures to be playable.

Incidentally, I agree with you that many players would make that move with Jx - but that really isn't the point... I *knew* he had the JJ. Without getting really esoteric here, there are times that your subconscious picks up on things that never get to your conscious mind. I don't play scared money and I have no problem moving chips - $155 at the stakes I'm used to playing is not a number that gets me to second guess myself - something else was going on. I figure I picked up a tell from this guy and simply failed to process it consciously but the way my screaming at me I should have trusted my instincts.

TUP

[kennyg]

TJ Cloutier says to always go with your first instinct..

Your first instinct includes all your poker experience and knowlegde, into one "feeling." Everything else is just second guessing yourself.

He of course states it much better in his book...

I find this advice very sound and only something a top player would realize on his own.

[k3nt]

Does "trust your gut" apply online also in this respect?

[Jav]

You are obviously correct that you should have trusted your read that hand, but I think that this is one kind of advice that doesn't always translate well to other players. Since every player has a different mix of skills and abilities that make up what their "gut instinct" is telling them. For instance, it may be more appropriate that they trust YOUR gut instinct, but that obviously doesn't help at the table!

But I do know that feeling where you're about to call a very big bet with a pretty good hand, but you just know that the other player is going to turn over the two perfect cards that have you beat. As long as you don't start looking for monsters where they usually won't be, I do agree that it's a good idea to trust that instinct sometimes.

[iceman5]

TUP, I posted a hand a while back the opponent min raised, I reraised with KK..he then min raised my raise again.
Flop was AKx..check/check
Turn was a ten. I bet half pot and he raised all in. I said I KNEW he had AA but couldnt fold.
Didnt you say that I shouldve called? I think that hand is pretty similar to yours. We both had good reads, but called any way. Most people in my hand and yours thought a call was correct. Im still not sure. I think reads are great, but you can only trust them so far.

[TheUnknownPlayer]

iceman,

I haven't pulled the old post up but I think I said that *I* would have called - as opposed to *you should have called*. Yup, I just looked it up and that's about what I said... specifically, "...if I've never played this person before and have no information on him then I'm certainly calling and will simply take my lumps if he has AA." You too mentioned in your original post (which was what I was responding to) that, "...he could also very easily have AK or TT. "

Perhaps it was just the way we said it and I misunderstood but I didn't read it as you had a lock on this guys holdings - I thought there was some inner doubt - now that I read it again I think maybe you were just having an academic argument with yourself and that was independant of your read.

Jav makes a good point here when he says that, "I think that this is one kind of advice that doesn't always translate well to other players." There is no way I can describe the 'knowing' in print. But we live and learn... let's hope this is one of those times for me

[Rhound50]

First off this is a really good read, with no bigger boat being possible (which is the first thing I would look for), I would call without thinking twice. You obviously had a good read on this player. In the games I play in $100-$200 live games this bet would be more likely to be AJ, or KJ than it would be JJ. Even after losing this pot vs this guy you have to like your chances of taking it back from him if you have that a solid a read on him to put him on JJ. Still I think you still have to call here, if you both have more $$ you could think about getting rid of it but as you said it was only $150 more.

[RedBarracuda]

[black_knight6]

[RedBarracuda]

[Spank_her_Pair]