Overpair vs a station ($50FR)

[MTPaid]

Villain is 25/3 over 123 hands. Don't have exact aggression numbers, but he wasn't very aggressive. Bit of a station - 32% WTSD.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($10.20)
UTG+1 ($102.05)
MP1 ($71.80)
MP2 ($54.65)
MP3 ($53.15)
CO ($57.45)
BTN ($45.95)
Hero ($51.00)
BB ($123.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is SB [Jc]
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.5 ($71.30), 2 folds, CO calls $0.5 ($56.95), 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5 ($48.25), 1 fold, MP1 calls $2 ($69.30), CO calls $2 ($54.95)

Flop: [3h][7d] ($8, 3 players)
Hero bets $5 ($43.50), 1 fold, CO calls $5 ($49.95)

Turn: ($18, 2 players)
Hero bets $10 ($33.50), CO calls $10 ($39.95)

River: ($38, 2 players)

Can't figure him out. I figured he would have raised a made hand by the turn, but he is capable of calling with a pair less than Jacks up to TT. Is a $10-$12 bet, fold to a raise/push a horrible line here? I don't think he'd bet the river if I check unless he had me.

[DoctorHandles]

[Zuccala]

[JohnSmith]

[MTPaid]

I just hate the thought of dumping of a full stack with Jacks. I very rarely see anyone except the very worst players that will go for an entire full stack with less than a pair of Jacks.

As it turned out, I bet $11 and he just called. Flopped the straight [4s]. Don't ask me why he never raised.

[JohnSmith]

[antneye]

[T-Rod]

[JohnSmith]

[Triple B]

[MTPaid]

[Triple B]

I don't like T-Rod's advice at all. By checking this turn, villain will bet most of the time and if we plan to fold we are weak and exploitable. If we plan to call we have not accomplished our goal of pot control and have gained less information about villains hand and therefore make the river harder to play correctly. Furthermore, we are making our decisions more difficult and villain's more simple.

Also, if you think you can only get 2 streets of value, I would rather bet the turn than the river because on the turn we can charge draws. If raised we can also consider folding.

Bottom line: We have a good hand and villain hasn't given us any indication we are behind. The turn card is not that terrible as the main draw just hit a pair so we can get a lot of money out of 89 here. The only hand we are worried about is 78, 88 or some slowplay.

I played a hand almost identical to this today (JJ OOP against a limper on a low board) and I pounded all 3 streets and got 3/4 of a stack of value.

[T-Rod]

[MTPaid]

[Triple B]