NL200 How thin is this river against a donk

[JohnSmith]

Reads, sees alot of flops, but nearly always fold to cb, but DONK

Not much draws out there so he prob has some sort of pair, or weak ace, but he's pretty bad, and will shove up with 9 often enough to make up for Ax?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed)

SB ($375)
BB ($197)
UTG ($343.85)
Hero ($209)
Button ($94.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with , .
UTG folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: ($19) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls $14.

Turn: ($47) (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button calls $30.

River: ($107) (2 players)
Hero ...

[johnnie_naked]

Fold PF.

[JimmyJet]

I'm not sure I like preflop with a shortie behind me but I really don't like the turn. Your read is that he nearly always folds to continuation bets, yet he hasn't. That would suggest to me at the very least you are outkicked here. Bearing in mind his stack size I think betting this turn isn't the best of ideas.

I really don't know how to play the river, I mean we're not folding whatever happens but I guess the best scenario is he has a hand like 89s, or QT and he folds to our push but I think he has you outkicked, or has 2 pr, way more times than 2nd pair or a busted draw.

[Triple B]

[JohnSmith]

Oops I think I slightly misinterurpet

Fold preflop, I dont know, I thought it was pretty standard here to raise, could go either way.

He sees alot ot flops, and fold alot, but when he does get a piece of it, he calls down?

Or doesnt that change much since he most likely have Ax here..

[stickdude]

Pre-flop is marginal - it's probably a standard raise if button isn't a cold-calling shortstack DONK.

[Triple B]

Preflop is not marginal, it is standard IMO.

[Semillon]

I raise Ax suited from UTG on a regular basis.

Like with a low pocket pair its fine to check/fold an unfavorable flop.

[johnnie_naked]

[GodlikeRoy]

[excession]

Hmm- I'd be interested in hearing what PT says your win rate from UTG and UTG+1 is open-raising low Axs.

If he was a proper shorty (20BB)'s I think you can figure that he would have folded most low Ax's and pushed with most good ones, so you can just get it in. However he has 40+ BB's so may well have peeled one off with a higher Ax or Axs in position.

i think my line is to rep NOT having an ace. That way I let him make a mistake is he has middle pair or similar. So I check flop and see what happens (with a view to leading out turn if he checks behind and depending on his post flop aggression stats either folding or raising if he bets). I want where I stand here clarified on the flop. i don't wan't to lead 3 streets OOP with top pair worst kicker if I can help it.

[DoctorHandles]

[Triple B]

[JimmyJet]

[excession]