Running hot - perceptions of luck
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Running hot - perceptions of luck
by Semillon » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:30 pm
Do you beleive that some people are luckier than others? Specifically that some poker players "run hot" while others "run bad"?
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Semillon - Posts: 1547
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by black_knight6 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:40 pm
It's not even a close question: YES.
Statistically speaking, with huge populations, it's going to APPEAR that some people are forever unlucky and some are forever lucky.
However, that's only true looking backwards...you can't use prior rare events to predict the outcome of future events. So, if you flip a coin 10 times, it's very unlikely that it will be heads 10 times in a row...flip it 10000000 times, and it's very unlikely that it WON'T be heads 10 times in a row...In the grand scheme, there have to be some that are way unluckier than the mean, and some that are way luckier - and since the sample size is so large, they'll be lucky/unlucky for what seems to be highly improbably long periods of time BUT, given the huge sample, it's likely for such people to exist. However, just because AlexMR is one of these unlucky ones, doesn't mean he will ALWAYS be unlucky (lol, yes he will)
Statistically speaking, with huge populations, it's going to APPEAR that some people are forever unlucky and some are forever lucky.
However, that's only true looking backwards...you can't use prior rare events to predict the outcome of future events. So, if you flip a coin 10 times, it's very unlikely that it will be heads 10 times in a row...flip it 10000000 times, and it's very unlikely that it WON'T be heads 10 times in a row...In the grand scheme, there have to be some that are way unluckier than the mean, and some that are way luckier - and since the sample size is so large, they'll be lucky/unlucky for what seems to be highly improbably long periods of time BUT, given the huge sample, it's likely for such people to exist. However, just because AlexMR is one of these unlucky ones, doesn't mean he will ALWAYS be unlucky (lol, yes he will)
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black_knight6 - Semi Pro (Online)
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by tommyhawk » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:41 pm
This could be discussed for decades and one could not prove this ever.
Mike caro wrote a nice article about this in BLUFF magazine. especially in tournaments one lifetime is too short to even out the luck.
As i work in a casino I see it very often. some guys hit almost always and others loose when they should have the odds too many times
Also I am a strong believer that some people are destined too be lucky in life but not in games/ money.
got some more issues about this but i am affraid I will be totally boooed.
Mike caro wrote a nice article about this in BLUFF magazine. especially in tournaments one lifetime is too short to even out the luck.
As i work in a casino I see it very often. some guys hit almost always and others loose when they should have the odds too many times
Also I am a strong believer that some people are destined too be lucky in life but not in games/ money.
got some more issues about this but i am affraid I will be totally boooed.
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tommyhawk - Posts: 1349
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by redhouse » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:43 pm
No. I believe some players are quicker to blame luck. Stuff like considering any QQ into AA a cooler, without thinking about who you did it against.
And some players, like me, allow bad luck to influence their mindset and play poorly, compounding the losses without realizing it. Not talking about raging tilt. But I often go on autopilot when i'm losing which is a more subtle form of tilt. At the end of it, I could reasonably say I played ok when i was playing my C game.
And some players, like me, allow bad luck to influence their mindset and play poorly, compounding the losses without realizing it. Not talking about raging tilt. But I often go on autopilot when i'm losing which is a more subtle form of tilt. At the end of it, I could reasonably say I played ok when i was playing my C game.
Mekos King: existence without running good
Mekos King: truly has no purpose
Mekos King: truly has no purpose
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redhouse - Posts: 1583
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by black_knight6 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:17 pm
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black_knight6 - Semi Pro (Online)
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by chuckwhoolery » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:31 pm
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DoctorHandles - Posts: 2401
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DoctorHandles - Posts: 2401
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excession - Enthusiast (Online)
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by shamdonk » Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:19 pm
Be glad your opponents refuse to fold; if they didn't, you just might go broke.
(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
(9:00:09 PM) GodlikeRoy: i think you could prolly post total shit for the next 2 years aaaaand like 192 days and you'll still be considered 'posting good' cause of your threads that'll never be seen thread
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