Late SNG hand

[Nashvegas]

There are four people remaining in a $50+5 SNG that pays the top 3. The blinds are 200/400, and you have 2800 chips. T

he chipleader, sitting directly to your right, has 4500.
The short stack, two seats to your left, has 900 before posting the big blind.
The other guy sits directly to your left with 1800 chips.

All players involved are regulars at the $50 stakes SNGs, and you think that they are all quite good SNG players.

The Chipleader, UTG, folds. It is your action on the button. What hands would you limp with? What hands would you raise with? How much would you raise? What hands would you fold?

[Big_Leon]

Here's the way I see it...

It's bubble time and SB is 3rd in chips while BB is very short. SB will probably fold almost everything except a monster because he wants to make the money and not get knocked out in 4th. SB is so short after posting that he's going to call a raise with almost anything (you did say they were all good players).

For me, there are no hands at this point that I'd limp with. I'm also not too wild about a coin flip situation with the BB because if you loose and double him up you fall to about even with the other short stacks. I'm raising to 1,000 with any pair 88 and up, KQ, AQ, AK. You know, add AJ to that as well. I don't think there is any reason to raise any bigger than 1,000 given that this will put short stack all-in and is enough to make SB lay down anything marginal.

Everything else I'm folding and I'll continue to wait. Too tight?

[poker2006]

I'm raising any ace, KT and higher, any PP, maybe QJ. They all figure to be better than a random hand in the BB. I try to be aggressive here. On the other side of the coin, the BB is correct calling with just about anything, with 3:1 odds that he's getting. Maybe I'm too aggressive. I don't steal here with junk hands, because I know BB will call most of the time.

[Nashvegas]

I mostly agree with you guys that the BB will play most hands, and that the SB will have to pull out a doozy of a hand to get involved at all. He's probably just going to try and limp to 3rd.

Given that, you must remember that sometimes the BB will fold, and sometimes the SB will go over the top..

Also, when you are expecting to be heads up all in preflop against an almost random hand, the second-highest card in your preflop hand does not matter as much as it usually would. If you have the higher high-card, you will be the favorite. Otherwise, you won't. Don't be that scared of being outkicked, because that results in a draw more than you would think, and your opponent will rarely have a K in his hand anyway.

Basically, I'm raising to about 1000 with any PP, any ace, any king, and any other 2 cards 9 or higher. If the SB was a guarenteed fold, you could push with alot more hands because of the dead money changing the odds. Remember that the BB will sometimes fold, even if they seem to be a good player.

[tommyhawk]

[flafishy]

[poker2006]

There are 600 chips in the pot. The SB has 1600 left. If you raise to 800 and he raises all in, you have to call 1000 to win a 600+800+1600=3000 pot, so 3:1 odds. Those are good odds unless you think he has a PP higher than your 2 cards.

The argument for raising to 1000 is that you have to call 800 into a 600+1000+1600=4200 pot, so your odds are 5.25:1 and you can call against any 2 cards that he has. Your decision to call his all-in is automatic.

[tommyhawk]

[Nashvegas]

Guys --

The 1000 bet is enough to let them know that I am taking this hand darn seriously and I'm not just screwing around trying to pick up blinds. Oddly enough, I think that it's less likely to get called than any other sized bet, which is why I would raise 1000. All ins and minimum raises are both classic blind-stealling type plays, but 1000 is usually coming from somebody who has carefully decided how much to bet. Careful decisions about the bet amount usually come from somebody who wants a call, so people naturally (even if they don't realize why they do it) fold to that bet more often than an all-in.

Of course, if either or both of them go all in, I'm going right in there with them a vast majority of the time. Sure, I'm risking a bubble finish, but things would have to work out pretty poorly for that to happen, even if I lost the hand. In all likelyhood, the BB would have to win the main pot, and the SB would have to beat me for the side pot, and even then I would have 1000 chips to work with. And if I win, I'm looking at a 55/45 edge playing for 1st or 2nd place.

The key principle here is that if the big stack has already folded, and you're the 2nd biggest, you should start acting like you're the big stack.

[poker2006]

That's what I also think, it's better to raise then to go all in. And why do you say you have 3 outs. You assume that you have Ax and villain also has Ax? That's not the common case with 4 people left.

I go all in preflop when I'm a short stack, have an M<5 and there's no way I will fold later. But if I'm a big stack I prefer to raise. Yes, sometimes you get into truble, but if you raise more than half the short stack you get an easy decision if he goes all in.