by Aisthesis » Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:17 pm
As to the mathematical question, there are 3 each of 99 and 77. I consider 77 the most likely after this betting sequence, but we're abstracting from that.
On the Q hands: Let's say all-in has QJ+ and caller, if he has a Q, has KQ+. There are 2 Qs in the deck, 2 Ks and 4 aces. Moreover, 60% of the time, all-in has KQ or AQ. So, there are 4+8-.6= 11.4 of those hands.
So, if he'll play KQ or AQ this way (which I consider strange with the PF limp-call) as often as he will 99 or 77, then he has KQ or AQ almost twice as often as the set.