Call or fold river? Big bet

[iceman5]

$1/$2 NL 6 max

UTG raises $7. Im UTG +1 and call with [Kh]. We're HU to the flop.

$200 effective stacks. Villain seems to be a solid player after 400 hands. Hes running 19 / 15. The only anamoly in his stats is a 36% go to SD rate but he also is winning at 70% of them so I think hes just running hot in this small sample.

Flop comes [4c][2d]. He bets $13 and I call.
Pot $43. Turn . He bets $33 and I call.
Pot $109. River . He thinks a very long time....very long...and then shoves all in. Its $144 to me.

[T-Rod]

[The Golden 1]

[shamdonk]

If you folded the river; you played every street incorrectly.

[k3nt]

You're massively under-repped, he has to put you on a hand that can't stand much pressure. Gotta call.

[LuparFiend]

[black_knight6]

[Twelver]

raise preflop, raise flop, raise turn...raise somewhere

[Rhound50]

[DoctorHandles]

[iceman5]

Hes a solid player and raises UTG. That narrows his range.

He bets the flop which doesnt mean much.
The ace hits the turn and he fires a pretty good sized bet.

At this point I think he has to have AA / KK / AK / AQ or maybe QQ/ JJ trying to force me off something like KQ.

I still call. The question is what does he put me on.

If I raise hes shoving with AA / KK and AK. Maybe AQ also. Hes folding everything else. I dont really see a point in pushing in unless hes pretty bad and I dont think he is. Hes a standard multitabling TAG.

Theres virtually no cards he can outdraw me with in this spot.

He shoves all in on the river. He could bet alot less if hes bluffing to get me to fold KQ.

I think he has AA / KK here like 80% of the time.
AK 8% of the time
55 1%
Bluff 1%

Thoughts?

[Twelver]

[iceman5]

What other hands does a player with these stats raise with UTG and play like this? Very very few.

[mecha]

I think AK is a much much higher % than AA, KK

- AK has 4 possible hand combinations vs AA, KK only 2

Also I think his range is much bigger than you stated. Hands that should be included also are: 22, 44, 55, KK, AA, AK, +semi-bluffs (trying to represent A on turn, and straight on river)

Based on the information provided, I think this is a very close decision, leaning towards a fold on the river. But I agree with previous posters, I would raise preflop, on flop and on turn.

[iceman5]