Let's talk about bluffing.

[Xaston]

If everyone knew this, then they wouldn't all be bad TAGs, and then the whole post would be irrelevant.

[k3nt]

Can someone teach me how to recognize a "bad TAG" when I see one? Stats to look for? Or ...?

[tommyhawk]

[black_knight6]

[iwanturcoin]

[black_knight6]

Start checkraising light, raising flops light, CBetting a bunch...you have to find ways to win pots without hands in order to get your WWSF>40%

[Kuso]

[Kuso]

[RedBarracuda]

what about this?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($505.00)
UTG+1 ($349.20)
CO ($744.40)
BTN ($537.90)
SB ($398.00)
Hero ($452.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is BB [Jh]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4 ($345.20), 2 folds, SB calls $2 ($394.00), Hero checks ($448.00)

Flop: [Qc][6d] ($12, 3 players)
SB bets $8 ($386.00), Hero raises to $28 ($420.00), UTG+1 calls $28 ($317.20), SB calls $20 ($366.00)

Turn: ($96, 3 players)
SB checks ($366.00), Hero bets $70 ($350.00), UTG+1 calls $70 ($247.20), SB folds ($366.00)

River: ($236, 2 players)
Hero bets $250 ($100.00),

[Stoneburg]

I think you can bet MUCH less on the river and get the same result. The ONLY hand you're folding out at this point is a busted draw, and he will fold that to a $100 bet just as quick as to a $250 bet.

Just for arguments sake, say he has a busted draw 50% of the time.

If you bet $100, you win $236 50% of the time and lose $100 50% of the time. Net EV $136.

If you bet $250, you lose $250 50% of the time and win $236 50% of the time. Net EV -$14.


Pretty freaking big difference.

Or, put another way. If you bet $100 he has to have a busted draw 30% of the time for you to break even. If you bet $250 he has to have a busted draw 52% of the time for you to break even. Less than one third, vs more than half. Once again, pretty big diff.

[hard2tel]

[Stoneburg]

A *lot* of people will call there with the nut flush draw.

[iwanturcoin]

i don't like the flop raise 3 way w an UTG limper still to act. HU would be fine.

[spacemonkey]

I don't like it the pot wasn't worth the steal until you started raising it up, go after people that raise loosely from whichever position.

If they are weak tight bet any flop that comes out rags, bluff turns that complete draws etc...

If they are loose check raise a lot.

If you want to fold out a busted draw in the aforementioned hand you've got position and can check behind on the turn and bet a smallish bet on the river.

[dropthe72]