Kelly Criterion?

[Marm]

[geiststaat]

[k3nt]

[Kuso]

i just did some research on this for big bet poker. some articles (a couple of repeats from k3nt):

http://www.jokersandaces.com/?p=26

http://www.jokersandaces.com/?p=31

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitandgo/ ... erion.html

http://cardsharp.org/?p=52


(these next two are the same as k3nt's)

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showfla ... t=all&vc=1

http://www.pocketfives.com/C56B7578-3C6 ... F97C9.aspx


the short summary that i can figure out is 13+3 (explained below) is a really aggressive br strategy for a 5 ptbb/100 player (i'm counting this as a 10% roi). 15+5 seems a bit more reasonable to me. for a half-kelly, then it's 25+8. for a quarter-kelly, it's about 50+20. these are armchair extrapolations, so don't kill me if the numbers aren't right.

15+5 means that you have 15 bis for your "backup" level and 5 bis for your "new" level. for example, if you're a 100 player and you want to move up to 200, then you need to have (15*100)+(5*200) for 2500. basically you have 1000 to work with at the 200s, and if that doesn't work out, you can rinse and repeat with 1500 (15*50)+(7.5*100) with a bit of cushion at the fallback level.

a few assumptions that i think people miss about aggressive br management are:

1) you must be a winning player at the higher limits.

2) it's usually not worth it to push it in with low +ev high variance plays.

3) tilting is ----ev

4) you must be willing to move down.


misc thoughts

gergery mentioned a 15bi minimum for aggressive br management over at 2p2, and i'm going to go out on a limb and say he's done the math on that.

fwiw, pzhon from 2p2 seemed to be rational about the mathematics and (seemingly) the psychology of aggressive br management.


just my 2 cents interpretation (that feels right intuitively)... feel free to refine the idea with actual math.

[nigassma]

[Kuso]

[RedBarracuda]

I don't know if the video is still promotionally free, but pzhon made a bankroll management video for Stoxpoker and he talks and applies the kelly criterion a lot in there..

fwiw, the calculation I made because of that video made me move up to NL200 much sooner then I actually would from NL100 and made me realize some things about moving up in general.. I am really glad that I did move up when I did because it made a huge difference for me so far..

I now think that one should really start taking stabs and start moving up much earlier then what the "proper" BR mngmnt suggests. Of course, the main 2 assumptions are that one can move down when taking a hit (say 5 buyins) and that one is a winner at current game over relatively significant sample.. These two are obviously key aspects of applying aggro BR imo.

EDIT:
here's the link to download the video.. I assume that it will work if it's still promotional video for stoxpoker.. give it a try

[Kuso]

[nigassma]

[black_knight6]

[Kuso]

[black_knight6]

[nigassma]

[RedBarracuda]

It's only the matter of how many tables can you play without your play deteriorationg.. you can basically have 100% of the bankroll on 10 tables if you can play them on same level..

when I used KC to determine my bankroll to move up to NL200 it didn't contain any MT parameters.. It used WR's on current and above level, standard deviations on both levels and comfort level (from 1 to 5 where 1 is almost insanely aggro with higher risk of ruin and 5 being BR nit)..

In fact, here's the link to the whole video (that you can't see unfortunately) discussion.. there are a lot of questions like the ones above and pzhon is very active in answering them all.. This should be open to everyone, not just members..



ps. plz don't laugh at my questions inside

[tommyhawk]

I am getting dizzy.

$1020 Br should I move up to $50? And why again?

srry