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Could it be more +EV not to telegraph your hand? - Live Poker Forums

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Could it be more +EV not to telegraph your hand?

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Could it be more +EV not to telegraph your hand?

Postby MTPaid » Thu Jun 05, 2008 10:20 pm

In a situation where you say....flop the nut flush. A hand where you have the nuts and nobody else can ever have the nuts with you, unlike a straight. If someone raised and then they bet again and get a caller also on the flop, if you raise the pot here you are telegraphing you're hand. You're giving them incorrect odds to draw just about all the time, but you're basically telling them exactly what you have.

Here's an example that came up the other day.

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($27.60)
UTG+1 ($103.00)
CO ($39.40)
Hero ($69.65)
SB ($47.75)
BB ($79.35)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BTN [6h] [8c] [Kc] [5h]
UTG raises to $1.75 ($25.85), 1 fold, CO calls $1.75 ($37.65), Hero calls $1.75 ($67.90), 2 folds

Flop: [Ac] [Qc] [7c] ($6, 3 players)
UTG bets $5.50 ($20.35), CO calls $5.50 ($32.15), Hero raises to $28 ($39.90), UTG folds ($20.35), CO folds ($32.15)

Final Pot: $22.50

Hero wins $43.90 ( won +$14.15 )
CO lost -$7.25
UTG lost -$7.25

My question is: Could it possibly be higher EV, although definitely higher variance, to not raise the pot on the flop? Either raise less to make your hand less obvious or take some other action.

Of course in these micro/low stakes games there are many more chances that you're going to run into someone that can't fold an inferior hand anyway, but for the purpose of the question would it be ok to assume that you are telling them your hand by potting it?
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Postby Kuso » Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:02 am

wwcrd?

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Postby teknipper » Fri Jun 06, 2008 11:35 am

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:41 pm

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Postby briachek » Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:16 pm

in this position, and usually with position in general, I would liek to just call here and hope someone gets frisky on the turn (assuming non pairing card). If someone has the 2nd nut flush, they might feel like they need to bet to charge lower flushes or someone with a set or two pair from boating. They get committed and either stack off or you got another bet from them. If you pop them on the flop, they might be more apt to fold knowing they have 2 more streets to get to showdown with their non-nut hand.

also, I would call behind here with a set too so it disguises when you are calling in position looking for the board to pair and when you are hoping it doesn't pair.
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:01 pm

I'm guessing that a big part of just calling being a good play and the better play maybe and to get out of that Hold'em mentality is because less action killing cards can come on the turn? Another flush card here won't mean a damn thing. Where as in hold'em that's not the case. Another club on the turn could change everything.
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