100nl ace high vs aggro

[Jossnaz]

sb davecoxy ($147.89) 57/27/4.7/aggr. frequency 52 hands 731 wtsd 25/ af by street 4.8 5.66 3.8 4.5 donk bet 48% raise cb 29% fold to cb 52%
bb mercan ($102.53)
tebadguy ($153.88)
alfingeh ($79.44)
OTB D1RKD ($105.03)

davecoxy posts (SB) $0.50
mercan posts (BB) $1

Dealt to D1RKD
fold, fold,
D1RKD raises to $4
call, fold,

FLOP ($9)
davecoxy bets $4
D1RKD raises to $16
davecoxy calls $12

TURN ($41)
davecoxy bets $10
D1RKD raises to $50
davecoxy calls $40

RIVER ($141)
davecoxy bets $77.89
i have ~38 behind

[k3nt]

Jesus H. Christ on a stick that's an ugly hand.

You've put in 4+16+50 = 70 so you have only 35 left. There's no way he thinks he has any fold equity and there's no way he thinks you're folding. There's aggro and then there's just stupid. How can you be good here?

But you only have to call 35 to win 175, so you gotta win 1 time in 6. Maybe you're good that often? Nah, I doubt it. I suppose I might call here just to see what he has ... and also to make him put you down as a complete moron so you can take his moneyz back later even more easily.

[Jossnaz]

[k3nt]

In my experience, once they donk bet then call a raise, they have something like a weak top pair and they will very often not be pushed off it. The other option is obviously the FD. This guy's stats are pretty crazy, so I don't mind trying to push him off whatever he has as much as I would against some other players.

Yes if he's on the FD he should fold to your turn raise because he has to worry he could be drawing dead. But your raise doesn't look like a made boat trying to milk a draw. At the same time, if he is on the FD, you're ahead anyway unless he has the in his hand. As weird as it sounds, if you think he's FOS here any decent % of the time, the turn could be a call. You're looking for either a river ace so you can call him down, or for him to give up with his stupid FD on the river. Getting 5:1 on a turn call I think you can do that.