If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner!

[bigwheell]

[MTPaid]

[MTPaid]

I think I've finally figured out a NLHE strategy that works. Identify the idiot. Play aggressively, not giving them the proper odds to call, and then stack off to them over and over and over again. Just blew off all the good I spent about a week and a half doing in an hour and a half. That's how it usually works.

4 absolutely abominable hands.....

The 3-bet. Just not gonna work no matter what hand I do it with. They call enough, they win.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($50.00)
UTG+1 ($53.10)
CO ($37.25)
BTN ($60.85)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($58.90)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, BTN raises to $2 ($58.85), 1 fold, Hero raises to $7 ($51.40), BTN calls $5 ($53.85)
19.20% (EV = -$4.26)
80.80% (EV = $4.51)

Flop: ($14.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $10 ($41.90), BTN calls $10 ($43.85)
24.60% (EV = -$1.57)
75.40% (EV = $15.82)

Turn: ($34.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $25 ($16.90), BTN goes all-in $43.85 ($0.00), Hero goes all-in $16.90 ($0.00)
72.70% (EV = $43.39)
27.30% (EV = -$9.67)

River: ($118.05, 2 players)
100.00% (EV = $120.00)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: $118.05
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $117 ( won +$56.15 )
Hero lost -$58.90


-------------------

WTF is this? This is atrocious. He calls a c-bet with 9-hi. Then stacks off on the turn. Says he wasn't paying attention after the hand. Maybe that's what I gotta do because it works.

http://weaktight.com/238111
-------------------

Hey, I finally found the guy who's willing to stack off without even thinking with a pair vs a preflop raiser. Think this would ever happen if I actually had AK....or even Aces?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero ($67.40)
CO ($12.40)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($55.45)
BB ($50.45)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1.75 ($65.65), CO calls $1.75 ($10.65), 1 fold, SB calls $1.50 ($53.70), BB calls $1.25 ($48.70)
61.40% (EV = $2.55)
38.60% (EV = $0.95)

Flop: ($7, 4 players)
SB bets $6.50 ($47.20), 1 fold, Hero raises to $21 ($44.65), 1 fold, SB calls $14.50 ($32.70)
54.70% (EV = $5.80)
45.30% (EV = $1.20)

Turn: ($49, 2 players)
SB checks ($32.70), Hero goes all-in $44.65 ($0.00), SB goes all-in $32.70 ($0.00)
70.50% (EV = $47.95)
29.50% (EV = -$7.38)

River: ($114.40, 2 players)
100.00% (EV = $114.40)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)

Final Pot: $114.40
SB shows:
Hero shows:

SB wins $112.40 ( won +$56.95 )
Hero wins $11.95 ( lost -$55.45 )
BB lost -$1.75
CO lost -$1.75

-------------------

Because this is what actually happens when I have Aces. Notice he raises on the 1/2 stack, I re-raise, not really giving him odds to call for his set preflop. No worries, he'll call and flop it anyway because somebody's gotta make up for all the ones I'm not flopping.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($51.30)
UTG+1 ($68.10)
CO ($27.90)
BTN ($50.50)
SB ($45.45)
Hero ($65.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, CO raises to $1.50 ($26.40), 2 folds, Hero raises to $5 ($59.50), CO calls $3.50 ($22.90)
79.80% (EV = $3.18)
20.20% (EV = -$2.93)

Flop: ($10.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $6.75 ($53.25), CO calls $6.75 ($16.15)
9.40% (EV = -$4.52)
90.60% (EV = $14.77)

Turn: ($23.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $15 ($38.25), CO goes all-in $16.15 ($0.00), Hero calls $1.15 ($37.10)
4.50% (EV = -$13.63)
95.50% (EV = $37.38)

River: ($56.05, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $56.05)

Final Pot: $56.05
Hero shows:
CO shows:

CO wins $53.35 ( won +$25.45 )
Hero lost -$27.90

-------------------

1 set in 25 tries yesterday. 1 more in another 20 today. 2 for 45, both taken down on the flop with no resistance.

[MTPaid]

Sometimes lucky > good.

Washed my hands of NLHE again for a few days after that horrid session on Wed. Played some PLO that night and got back a little over a stack. But yesterday I took my PLO beating. 2 stacks bled off to calling stations and middle/baby flush draws that just couldn't fold and 1 stack with top 2 + NFD < straight on the turn. But here's how you turn a potentially really bad day into about a break even day in just 2 lucky hands........

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero ($73.90)
CO ($56.25)
BTN ($92.60)
SB ($61.80)
BB ($86.90)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1.75 ($72.15), 1 fold, BTN calls $1.75 ($90.85), 1 fold, BB raises to $7.25 ($79.15), Hero raises to $23.75 ($48.40), BTN folds ($90.85), BB raises to $73.25 ($6.40), Hero goes all-in $73.90 ($0.00), BB calls $0.65 ($13.00)
45.90% (EV = -$5.14)
54.10% (EV = $6.47)

Flop: ($149.80, 2 players)
54.20% (EV = $81.19)
45.80% (EV = $68.04)

Turn: ($149.80, 2 players)
40.00% (EV = $59.92)
60.00% (EV = $89.13)

River: ($149.80, 2 players)
0.00% (EV = $0.00)
100.00% (EV = $148.55)

Final Pot: $149.80
BB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $147.80 ( won +$73.90 )
BTN lost -$1.75
BB lost -$73.90

---------------------

And if I had played this aggressively, as is my usual approach, I don't think I would have stacked him. There's nothing better than getting him to shove in over 100BB dead.

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
6 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($64.15)
UTG+1 ($48.50)
CO ($13.65)
Hero ($155.15)
SB ($52.25)
BB ($86.75)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50 ($48.00), CO calls $0.50 ($13.15), Hero calls $0.50 ($154.65), SB calls $0.25 ($51.75), BB checks ($86.25)
33.50% (EV = $0.34)
66.50% (EV = $1.16)

Flop: ($2.50, 5 players)
SB checks ($51.75), BB bets $2.40 ($83.85), UTG+1 calls $2.40 ($45.60), 1 fold, Hero calls $2.40 ($152.25), SB folds ($51.75)
26.30% (EV = $0.15)
73.70% (EV = $4.75)

Turn: ($9.70, 3 players)
BB checks ($83.85), UTG+1 checks ($45.60), Hero bets $7 ($145.25), BB raises to $30.25 ($53.60), UTG+1 folds ($45.60), Hero calls $23.25 ($122.00)
2.50% (EV = -$28.49)
97.50% (EV = $38.20)

River: ($70.20, 2 players)
BB goes all-in $53.60 ($0.00), Hero calls $53.60 ($68.40)
0.00% (EV = -$53.60)
100.00% (EV = $123.80)

Final Pot: $177.40
BB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $174.40 ( won +$87.65 )
SB lost -$0.50
BB lost -$86.75
UTG+1 lost -$2.90
CO lost -$0.50


These were the 2nd and 5th largest PLO pots I've won in about 10K hands and both took place on the same table within a couple of orbits of each other.

[MTPaid]

[MTPaid]

[MTPaid]

I'm still pretty disgusted about yesterday for several reasons.

1 - There are 5 hands, where if I win any 1 of them, I cash and at least pull out a win for the week and possibly a winning or even very profitable day. AK and KT were killers.
A - AK vs AJ and A7 all-in preflop where I came in 3rd.
B - JJ vs KTo EP limp/call. T on Turn and River.
C - QQ vs KTo EP limp/call again. K on flop.
D & E - The 2 AKs hands (vs TT and 77) posted above.

2 - I ran really well in Omaha last week. Even had a winning LO8 session on Saturday. But I ran so badly in NLHE and MTT's that I couldn't even capitalize on it and make it a winning week. So I feel that I wasted a heck of a run in PLO. Don't have time to post graphs, but I won most of the hands I got it in ahead and most of the coin flips too. Very frustrating having nothing to show for it, yet when I get hammered, I wonder if I'll run well somewhere else to make up for it. I can never get that hot streak in more than 1 game at a time.

Last week:
PLO+LO8: +$328.75 ($91 from LO8)
NLHE: (-$131.80)
MTT: (-$211.80)

An extremely busy week ahead with and without poker.
- I need 3 more days of 100pts on Full Tilt to qualify for Silver Iron Man and get a $200 mid-year bonus for July.
- I need a little over 800 FPP's on Stars for Gold and a $285 bonus.
- A bunch of house work both inside and out.
- I really want to get all of this out of the way by Thursday because I have one of my best friend's bachelor party in AC on Saturday and would like to take a 4 day weekend until next month.

We're going to Harrah's, even though I hate the company, cause that's where he wants to go (Borgata is too pricy for the group). So I plan on playing some live Saturday too, just not sure what. Anyway, should be a fun weekend with some old friends that I don't get to see much anymore since they got married. Or if I do, it's with the wives where they have to look for permission before they speak. Sometimes they'll look to see if she's paying attention and then whisper instead. And then I feel like I have to watch my behavior in front of them too sometimes. It's so sad.