TT Live MTT hand

[Horshak]

Briachek, lets assume you call. Let's also assume that the flop comes as it does, which is all undercards to your pair of tens. Lets also assume that your oppenent holds AK offsuit (in this case highly unlikely- really doesnt matter down to QJ) Lets take it a step further and assume that your oppenent is a thinking oppenent, that has a basic understanding of pot odds. (odds are in this case he isnt). Lets also assume that when you push in, you flip up your hand so your oppenent can see it before he makes his decision - so he has perfect information. After you push in the pot will contain (running with 10 handed table tho 9 handed won't change it much) 750tc in antes, 600tc in blinds, your 2400tc and your oppenents 2400tc along with your all-in of 2600. If my math doesn't fail me it is 8750tc. Your oppenent has to call (with two overcards) 2600 to win a pot of 8750tc. Effectively he is getting slightly better than 3.25 - 1. His odds of winning the hand are (assuming ak) 24.8% - 75.2% or slightly worse than 3 - 1. Therefore the pot is laying him the correct price to call if he wants to take a shot to double up. You have technically zero fold equity vs two overcards on that flop. You also run the risk by calling of an overcard flopping, and then you are stuck out of postition and have to either push into a made hand or check and fold to his likely bet. Mind you, when you do fold, you are probably folding the best hand most of the time.

Preflop, if you shove-in, and assuming his calling range to be fairly tight (AA-1010, AK-A10 suited or not, KQ-K10 suited or not, QJ-Q10 suited or not, J10 suited or not) your equity is 52%. Not all shabby considering his possible range of hands is much much wider and you will fold most of his Ace rag hands giving your 2750tc risk free not to mention the increase in your equity if he calls with pocket pairs down to 66 along with some suited aces.

I still think shoving preflop is the best option, tho it takes away the ability of a bad oppenent possibly laying down an even money(on a pot odds basis) hand on the flop (two overs). Pushing guarantees that you will not make an incorrect fold, it also gives you the chance to get ace rag to fold preflop, and perhaps some other hands. By pushing preflop, you still retain some fold equity. He will definately call with a hand he beats you with, however he may lay down some hands which are a coinflip. Also, remember that by holding 1010, you add a few points to your coinflip percentage by virtue of taking away some of his straight possiblities by denying him access to two 10s when he is holding overcards.

In my opion, I still like shoving in preflop. You need chips fast. You are in the blinds next and if you fold to overs on the flop you have approximately 2 trips left around the table. Odds are you will not get your money in with 525 or greater equity after this hand. Not to mention that if you do have to fold(say and ace flops), doublling up isn't as powerful as doubling up now.

[Kalle]

I agree with briachek on this.

But first I would say that I would just have pushed preflop. You have 12BB’s / 5000 left and there is 1350 in the pot. Just winning the blinds and antes here is good, and if you are called that’s ok. You also avoid situations like this when you raise to 1200 and are reraised and don’t know exactly what to do. And if you only raise to 1200, are called and the flop contains one or two overcards it’s not the most fun spot to be in.

As you played it I like it. But only if you are sure that LP has two overcards. His raise could be a steal and if you think there is a chance that he has something like A7, Q3 or 85 I think you should raise all in.

If you think he has two overcards and he will call your all in (which I think he will) stop and go is the best play. I dont think it's close. Briachek has explained why.
But you are going to push any flop (perhaps except flops like AKQ and TT2)

How did you finish in the tourney?

[briachek]

Kalle, that was the last hand I won as I went card dead, the structure raised quickly and it turned into "all in or fold". I went all in twice and everyone folded but then when all in in the sb with Q8s when it was folded to me and I had decent enough chips to fold a random BB hand but she had 77 and called me and I lost. I finished about 80th of 190.

Horshak, I don't agree with your analysis that I have so much more fold equity preflop. If he is a think opponent, he is getting a little better than 3:! on his money to call my all in preflop. The only hands really get less odds than that to call is if he has on underpair to my TT or 2 unders to it. If he has something like A9, KJ, ect, he is getting odds. Even if he doesn't know I have a pair and he thinks I have AK, even a hand like AJ that is dominated is has better than 3:1 to call my all in and then he'll get to see 5 cards. After the flop, he only has 2 cards to come so if he hasn't hit, his chances of winning has dropped significantly. True he is still getting the odds with 2 overs to my TT but he is not getting the odds with hands like A9 to my TT or AJ if he thinks I have AK or AQ. Therefore, even with perfect information, I do have some fold equity as the range of hands he could be on is more than just 2 overs to my TT.

[bobby]

This has been a great topic, and I have read through this thing 3 times...I still don't know what the right anwer is, but I do know in "real life", I would have played it the same way Bri did...Upon reflection, maybe pushing pre-flop makes a bit more sense, but it just does't feel right to me...
Oviously, I have nothing to add here, other than to say it has been very good food for thought...
B