How greedy do you get here?

[JDLush]

Typical Party $25 PLO8 table. I have a LAG to my immediate right that is catching and is up to $75 or so. I have already lost a buyin and a half, but then made most of it back and am at $55. Rest of the table areyour typical weak/tight Party players.

I get AA3Q with a suited ace. LAG min raises, I pot it, one other guy calls, LAG calls.

Flop comes QQ6 with 2 hearts (my suit). Caller checks to LAG who pots it. Ok, I figure he's got a Q, or perhaps 66. If it's a Q then I almost certainly have him out kicked. If he's already boated then I'm drawing to a backdoor low or 2 aces at best. I decide to re-pot it back at him (about a $12 raise IIRC).

He pots back at me. WWYD?

[Kuso]

If you think he is the kind of player who would play trips like this, I would get all of my chips in the middle on the flop. Only 6 unique pairs of cards have your beat here and 2 more tie, but you dominate lots of hands that a LAG would play aggressively.

Before you reraised, did you have a plan about what you would do if he raised back at you? If that thought makes me cringe, I would just call the flop bet rather than bet back.

That being said, if your BR can handle the increased variance of duking it out with a LAG, then I don't think you can really ask for a better place to do it than here.

[Felonius_Monk]

If you're behind you still hold about a fifth of the equity, so it's not the worst play in the world to shove the lot in by this stage. That said, a lot depends on your read.

The alternative possibility was calling the flop and then reevaluating on the turn, but I don't really see what that achieves. I guess you just have to take a deep breath and make the raise. Against a non-LAG I think it might be time to consider giving up, however. Just depends how LAGgy you think he is!

[GooperMC]

One thing to consider: the $30 that you won is worth more to you then the $25 that you bought in with. That is especially true with a bad lag with a large stack playing table caption.

In this spot I would probably fold and look for a better time to try and double up through him.
I see 4 possible scenarios
1) He is bluffing with a K high flush draw (or some other garbage) and you will be way ahead.
2) He has the case Q with a worse kicker and you will be 2:1 ahead.
3) He has the Q6 boat and you will be a 5:1 dog.
4) He has the 66 boat This is likely and you will be a 2:1 dog.

Apply some random probabilities to the scenarios
1) .02
2) .60
3) .25
4) .13

Do a not so meaningful EV calc
EV = (.02)(55) + (.60)(17.6) + (.25)(-33) + (.13)(-17.6)
EV = approx 0

It really comes down to your read and how laggy this guy is. However unless you are convinced that Q no kicker is 3x more likely then Q6 then I highly doubt pushing will be +EV so I would fold and find a better spot.

[JDLush]

Goop, I love your calculations, but they aren't easy to do when the Party timer starts beeping at you.

I looked at it this way - If he has not boated yet then I have an almost guaranteed virtual nut low draw (with 2 aces in my hand I have the odds of him holding A2 as pretty slim, plus an A gives me nut boat and a 3 will boat me). So any card 8 or below is good, there's a small chance any heart is good, and another small chance that I am good even without improving. If he has boated already than I'm drawing thin but nowhere's near dead.

That being said, he had QT6x (I don't remember what the X was, but it wasn't an ace, and yeah, he called a pretty good sized raise with it). To add insult to imbecile, a 10 came on the turn and I was done for when the river didn't bring an ace.

When I potted back at him I had pretty much made the decision to call all my chips off if he came back over the top of me. The only thing that bugs me about the whole deal is that I didn't get a note on the guy before I left the table. I was tempted to buy back in but I figured 2.5 buyins is good enough. I got a lot of that back last night anyway, lol.

[GooperMC]

[JDLush]