OOP nuts on turn

[forssell]

Btw, anyone know any other good omaha forums? Last time I posted I remember I got some great replies and thought that I should post more but not many interesting hands lately or I just forget em. Anyway, here goes:

Villain in this handed started playing with a very short stack when we were 3-handed and has like 10-folded his stack. With the big stack he has played some hands cautiously IMO. I have been playing aggressively.

***** Hand History for Game 2434221135 *****
$2000 PL Omaha - Wednesday, July 27, 18:54:11 EDT 2005
Table Table 52003 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 9: Hero ( $5288 )
Seat 2: Villain ( $4883 )
Seat 6: - ( $3533.50 )
Seat 7: ( $2616 )
Seat 1: ( $1017.50 )
Seat 4: ( $1590 )
Seat 8: ( $1393 )
Seat 10: ( $1930 )
[$10].
[$20].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ts Kd 9s Ks ]
folds.
>You have options at Table 54708 (No DP) Table!.
Hero calls [$20].
folds.
Villain calls [$20].
folds.
folds.
checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, Kh, 3d ]
checks.
>You have options at Table 51978 Table!.
Hero bets [$67].
Villain calls [$67].
folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8h ]
Hero bets [$201].
Villain raises [$804].

What should Hero do? (bord Jc, Kh, 3d, 8h, villain has about 4k behind and hero covers)

[briachek]

If the opponent is good, he would have a flush draw and a wrap straight draw. Since you have some outs to the straight and the boat, I think your main concerns are Aces and hearts only. I think I would just call and play the river depending on the card.

[forssell]

[Kuso]

If I read this correctly, only 18 of 44 cards are scare cards (hearts, nines, tens, and aces), and almost everything else you win or chop (maybe he has trips and could make quads... not sure about how to do the odds math with that).

If you have no read and your BR can handle it, I would jam. You have fold equity (at least in theory), and I think you are pretty much ahead of any unique hand that he could be holding.

Please correct me if my math is wrong.

[forssell]

Queens are surely scarecards, and even sevens somewhat. I might not like a jack either. I was looking to play a big pot against villain but OOP and plenty of stacks left on a draw-heavy board I didnt like the situation too much.

[briachek]

[Felonius_Monk]

[forssell]

[Felonius_Monk]

If he has JJ I just don't think you can let him see the river cheaply. What if he (as many people at this level will do) bets pot on a scare card? Even if he doesn't have some outs (which he probably does) in addition to middle set, well, you've gotta make him pay on the turn I think. It would be truly horrible to try to get cute with your KK, call the turn, and then lose when the heart on the river makes him a 5-high flush, ugh. Kudos if he can get away from the middle set there, but if he has any sort of draw to go along with it more often than not I think he'd push all-in here and you'll get your money in as a big favourite. I think you played it fine, I just think you're giving up a lot of value here by not going as close to the felt as you can on the turn.

My two penneth, anyhoo.

Monk
xxxxx

[forssell]

Yeah, that´s pretty much what I thought too so potted again and hoped like hell he would push. Here thou I was pretty confident he was not on a draw (but of course on that board it is very possible he has some draw also), and if so, very confident he would not bluff at a draw-completing river thinking I was on a draw and missed or possibly even checking a completed draw. With 4/5 of stacks left against this opponent I thought I might be able to outplay him by calling and get a shot at all his money if river blanked. In the end I didnt trust my read enough or wasnt sure what to do with it so it kinda sucked. Against the normal tricky aggro player it wouldve been a totally different trouble with no easy way out, but here I was a bit disappointed that I took the easy option, even thou it might have been the most rational.

Asked this also in Slotbooms great "Ask the Ace" -section and he advocated raising the max. That does seem like the default play but somehow here I thoughty I missed an opportunity at a big pot. Of course if he had pushed I probably wouldnt be typing here.

[Felonius_Monk]

To be honest, 9 times out of 10 I try to make a creative play by failing to maximum raise a vulnerable nut hand in PLO, I seem to get bitten by it. Personal experience tells me, raise it up ... My credo when it comes to poker is keep it simple, and do the right things time and again, and avoid making huge errors. Raising the turn can't really be a serious mistake, IMO, but not raising it could cost you thousands.