WTF is fishy playing? Do you fire a 3rd bullet?

[GooperMC]

$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo (6 handed)

SB ($24.75)
BB ($20.23)
UTG ($43.45)
MP2 ($12.50)
LP2 ($25.03)
OTB ($34.44)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with
(3 folds), OTB calls [$0.25], Hero raises [$0.90], (1 fold), OTB calls [$0.75]

I am very sure that I have the best hand so I want to make them pay to play

Flop: ($2.05) (2 players)
Hero bets [$2.15], OTB calls [$2.15]

Great flop for my hand. Nut low draw on a very ragged board

Turn: ($6.25) (2 players)
Hero bets [$6.25], OTB calls [$6.25]

Total brick. WTF is he calling me with

River: ($18.25) (2 players)
Hero checks, OTB bets [$8], Hero ???

I can't decide if this is a milking bet or a busted low draw scared bluff. With him flat calling on both the flop and turn the only hands that I beat are busted low draw and a very determined player with KK, however the odds are good.

OTB was a very loose calling station. Anyone fire again on the river? What is your play after he bets? Does everyone play the rest of the hand the same way?

[Kuso]

Loose CS fish could have anything -- top pair, overpair, 2 pair, trips, flush draw, or any combination thereof -- to call on the flop and turn. A24x with spades would not be so unusual to play like this.

I think he hit the flush (possbily the nut) on the river.

I am not sure if I would be driving the betting on the flop and turn with this hand and this board. You are assuming that your aces are good and will be good at showdown (he's not going to fold). The only high draws you have are to the wheel and trips, and CS might have that duplicated or beaten. Your low, while the current nut draw, has no counterfeit protection and also might be duplicated. Overall, I wouldn't be ashamed of showing down this hand, but I wouldn't be betting it aggressively into a calling station.

I personally would be looking for a small win or a small loss in this situation -- I would avoid swinging for the fences.

[GooperMC]

[Felonius_Monk]

I play it how you did and curse my luck ... I think I play PLO8 very unadventurously however, so there might be a better way to go about it. If you're up against a LAG-type opponent, that flop is every bit the check-raise candidate.

Against the vast majority of players I'm betting that river pretty hard, but if he's truly a serious calling station I think looking to check it down is not so bad. When he bets I don't see how you can call.

[Kuso]

[Felonius_Monk]

Interesting take on the flop. I think check-folding the turn to an opponent who hasn't shown any aggression when the turn brings a relative brick is a bit weak though. Hard to imagine you're seriously behind at this point. There's still a lot of rivers you like - any low, anything that pairs the board, and perhaps even some high bricks might be good (though I'd be check-folding the latter on the river, probably).

[Kuso]

You're right, the thinking on the turn is weak -- but that is my Party philosophy. I want to play hands where I know I can drive the betting or call aggressive betting with the nut or a nut draw with proper odds. People simply are willing to pay me off.

People play the strangest hands on Party and don't always represent clearly (trips get slowplayed regularly), so I really don't treat any card as a "brick" if all I hold is top pair or even top two pair. I try to keep the pot small unless I have top trips, nut str8, nut flush, etc.

Again, I realize that this is nut-peddling at its worst, and it is probably not a good technique for better games and/or higher limits. It works for me at Party.

[GooperMC]

Kuso, If you are not willing to push that flop with AA3 what flop would you be willing to push? OOP if I am going to raise pre-flop I am going to pot this flop every time.

I agree with monk that a check fold on the turn is a little weak but maybe you are correct that a pot bet is too strong. Against a calling station on a board with no visible draws maybe I should check and see if I can get a free shot to hit my low on the river.

I think that pushing this turn is a high variance play but I do wonder if it is +EV or -EV. I'm ok with pushing the turn if it is high variance yet +EV, that is what I have a bankroll for.

[Felonius_Monk]

[Kuso]

Gooper,

I would drive the betting in the following seven cases:

1) Made low with only AA as high (i.e., no strong redraws for high).
2) Made low with redraw to the nut high.
3) Redraw to low (like you have here) and redraw to nut high (e.g., two hearts on the flop in this example).
4) Redraw to low with made nut high (e.g, three hearts on the flop).
5) A low draw and AA as high (like this hand) but with counterfeit protection (e.g., AA35 or AA36).
6) Trip aces with limited low draw potential (i.e., need four low cards on the board to even make a hand). I like to bet this aggressively because many lows draws got screwed by the A just like I did, but I've got the boss high.
7) An opponent who will lay down an unmade hand on the flop (i.e., not a calling station).

As I said in my previous post, I feel like your hand is very vulnerable as it stands. With just a tweak or two to the hand or the flop, it becomes very strong.

Also, when it comes to betting for fold equity, I have often found that small bets ($0.50) will get many people off their unmade hands on ragged boards or powerful boards (e.g., 999). If someone calls, then they hit a part of the board and/or have a nice draw.

Conversely, they often won't lay own even to aggressive flop and turn betting with something as weak as TP, overpair, or a weak 2pr. As such, I avoid what could be marginal +EV plays, as I often don't really know where I stand.

One different way to play this would be to bet $0.50 on the flop and $1.00 on the turn (and maybe even the river). If they have your AA beat, they will almost always come back at you on the turn or river, and you would be right to fold. I think that this is a lower variance semi-aggressive way to play this hand.

For the record, I try to be a low variance player ABC poker on Party 25 PLO8. People play some of the strangest hands in the strangest ways, so I feel like it is tough to get good reads on the fishies. I personally think the higher limits are better for attempting "plays" or pushing small +EV edges. Just my 2 cents.

[GooperMC]