hand analysis/odds question

[legendary loser]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($29.5)
Button ($22.5)
SB ($29.05)
BB ($100.48)
UTG ($110.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP with , . Hero posts a blind of $0.5. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, SB completes, BB calls $0.50, UTG (poster) raises to $2.75, Hero (poster) calls $2.50, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($12) , , (4 players)
UTG bets $15, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $11.50.

Turn: ($38.50) (2 players)

River: ($38.50) (2 players)

Final Pot: $38.50

Results in white below:
Hero has Qh Kh (flush, king high).
UTG has As Kc (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $38.50.

For some reason the converter is not showing my re-raise on the flop. I don't know how this works, but the total pot was $63, but I won $38.50...I think.

Do you call the raise preflop w/ KQs? The table was pretty loose and I was in position. I think my flop re-raise was okay, but could have been dangerous. I'm in trouble if he has Axs or a set, but other than that I know I'm ok.

On another note, I'm having problems calculating the odds. Someone please help here. I have 9 hearts, 4 10s, 3 queens. 16/47 and 16/46 on the flop and turn..roughly 2:1 to hit on both streets. How do you take into account both streets...I'm pretty sure I'm AT LEAST even money on the flop if he has a low PP...or AK.

[Mad Genius]

I have read the first part at least 3 times but still can't understand anything. How the hell is UTG posting a blind of .25? And how does UTG act before SB and BB? And why are you posting a blind in MP when you are not coming in as a new player? Why does UTG get to act last PF? Strange game you are playing.

Anyway, assuming the blinds checked and UTG bet $12, I would just push. You are better than even money against QQ, since you have 15 outs (9 hearts, 3 non-heart 10s, 3 Ks). If he has KK you are still about even money or close to it, and same with AA. Against a set you are behind but I am guessing that pot odds would still make it a worthwhile call. Only hand you are in bad shape against is [Th], but by the way things played out I doubt he has that.

[Nortonesque]

I wouldn't call a UTG raise with KQ unless I knew something about the raiser. If you hit top pair and you get bet into (which the preflop raiser is likely to do), it's hard to feel good about your hand. You may likely be dominated.

As MG said, this is a good spot to push. You have at least 12 outs to a hand that beats his. I'm surprised he called with AK.

[iceman5]

[legendary loser]

The hand converter really confused me. Anyhow, I called a raise in the CO to to $2.50 w/ . Neither of us posted a blind out of position. It was called by both blinds.

Flop was

Raiser bet $15 and I re-raised all in for $11. The only hand I'm really worried about is or a set.

[Rhound50]

Me I dont usually call a preflop raise with KQ, it is one of my least favorite hands to play vs a raise, its to easy to be dominated by someone's AK or AQ. So if you flop top pair you dont even feel strong. That said this is the prefect flop for you. Here are your specific odds

Vs QQ or AK You are ahead 55/45
Vs KK or kings You are behind 47/53
Vs JJ you are behind 33/67


Either way you are getting odds to push all in here, especially vs a really loose table, I'm surprsied that you got action from AK but some people cant let good hands go when they dont get the flop they want.

[kennyg]

KQ is a very troublesome hand and really should be folded preflop here. TJ Cloutier says he treats KQ like the plague and 23o, unless it is folded to him on the button.

I do have a question...I don't see where you get roughly 2:1 on both the turn and river. Indivuadually, 16/47 and 16/46 are much closer to 3:1, then 2:1?

[Mad Genius]

I don't think playing KQs to a raise is not that bad in 6-max. Clearly at a 10-handed table it should almost never be played to a raise, but with position, I think you can play it against a LAG at a 6-handed table. I wouldn't play it everytime, but probably a good 50% of the time.

[legendary loser]

[Rhound50]

[Nortonesque]

[kennyg]

sorry guys didn't realize it was 6 handed, because i'm dumb like that. I still hate KQ though. Even if you hit, you still have nothing! it's just mediocre crap that is very hard to play. Even at 6 max I would strongly consider folding to a raise.

[k3nt]

How to calculate the odds of hitting on one street or the other:

I'll assume that you're right that your chances of catching on the turn & river are 16/47 and 16/46, respectively.

What you have to do is calculate the possibility that you do NOT catch on either street, and then subtract that from zero.

So you have a 31/47 chance of missing on the turn and a 30/46 chance of missing on the river. Your odds of missing on both streets are therefore 31/47 * 30/46, which can be written as (31*30) / (47*46) => 930 / 2162, which is 43.0157%. Your chance of hitting is therefore about 1 - 0.43, or 0.57, or 57 percent.

[k3nt]

Oops, I meant subtract that from ONE, not from zero. Silly me.


In general, to calculate the odds of "x AND y", you multiply the chances of x happening times the chances of y happening.

And the only way to calculate the odds of doing "x OR y" is to calculate the odds of "NOT x AND NOT y," and then subtract from one.

In algebra form: (x or y) = 1 - [(not x) * (not y)]

It works the same way for more than 2 tries. Say I'm flipping a coin three times, and I want to know the odds that it will come up heads at least once. To figure this out, you have to ask, what are the odds that it will NOT come up heads at least once, or in other words what are the odds that it comes up tails every time. The odds of tails on any given flip is of course 1/2. So the odds of getting tails on all 3 flips is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Therefore, the odds of at least one heads is 1 - 1/8 = 7/8.

OK, enough odds blather.