New 2/5NL Live Hand

[Mad Genius]

Before I post the hand of interest, I thought I would share this entertaining hand (for me, at least):

Having sat down about 10min ago, I'm in CO with [6c] when a regular in the game puts in a raise to $20. He is one of those guys who prides himself in playing perfect poker and is constantly discussing hands with his neighbors in hopes of getting the entire table to play "good" poker. Basically a crappy and nicer version of Helmuth. A MP calls, and I call. The three of us take a flop of J-7-4 rainbow. The raiser leads for $40. MP folds, and I make it $120. He thinks for no longer than 5seconds, then decides to muck his QQ face-up, pulling a line straight out of Rounders, saying how he's not gonna draw against my set. I just flip my hand over and drag the pot. I don't make that bluff a lot but I have a very tight image and figured I would do a couple things to loosen up my image for today's game.

About an hour later, I play my first real hand. Sitting in LMP, I get [As]. UTG calls, EP calls, and I make it $30. Folded to SB, who calls. UTG calls, and EP folds. SB is tight but extremely aggressive. I've played with him enough to know that he is selective about taking flops but when he does he plays his hands real fast. I don't recall him going to showdown since most of the time he will bet his opponents out or he will just fold if he has nothing. UTG is a typical decent player but a bit too passive.

Stack sizes:
Me - $600
UTG - $400
SB - $1000

FLOP: [4c][2d] (Pot: $100)

Checked to me. I bet $75. Both call.

TURN: (Pot: $325)

SB suddenly goes all-in. UTG thinks for the longest time ever and then reluctantly calls. With the rough stack sizes given you should be able to figure out pot size and all that. It was about $500 for me to call, with $200 going in sidepot (meaning if I won sidepot but lost mainpot it would be about -100 compared to not calling).

Do I call?

[Felonius_Monk]

$1600 full pot if you call, incl. $400 sidepot. Costing you $500 so you're getting about 2-1, slightly better, on your cash.

If you can put them both on overpairs, well, obviously you call. UTG might be auditioning for hollywood and holding a boat, but I reckon most likely has something like JJ with a club, for an overpair and weaker flush draw, so is probably basically dead money. SB presumably has a boat or a flush, with an overpair and flush draw a more distant possibility. If he's decent and cautious, but plays his big hands hard, this smells suspiciously like he's turned the flush or boat; however, would he REALLY bet the boat so hard, or let another club fall or let someone else bet for him? And what would this apparently decent player call preflop that could have hit a flush? With you holding the Ac that seems relatively unlikely, but still very possible.

a) If you're facing the boat you're obviously nigh on dead and buried; you win about 3 or 4% of the time.

b) If you're facing against an overpair with a club (UTG) and a flush (SB), then you can hit one of 7 remaining clubs, 2 remaining deuces or 2 remaining aces to win. 11 outs, about a 25% or so shot at it.

c) Best case scenario I think is that you're facing two overpairs. Here you're a big favourite, about 90%. I think this is probably quite unlikely though, unless I've misunderstood your read on the SB.

Essentially I think scenarios a) and b) are probably marginally the most likely, although it would be very strange for your opponent to play a boat so aggressively (hoping for a call from a flush perhaps, although this would be a poor play IMO, you did say he was very aggressive with strong hands though!). It's hard to see them BOTH calling without at least a flush between them, though I guess it's possible, so scenario c) seems the least likely. IMO, therefore, you need to be very sure neither has a boat (a), and you need there to be at least a chance that you're ahead (c). I think the side pot is of less importance than one might imagine because if anyone has you beat it seems more likely to be the aggressor; however, if the UTG has a low flush (seems unlikely but possible) and the SB is over-pushing an overpair, the sidepot might come into it.

You need to be winning about 1/3 of the equity in the pot, perhaps a bit more, to make this +ve EV. You also need to be able to rebuy because losing your stack and quitting for the evening will be very -ve EV. Thus, I'd say you want to be winning about 35% of the time here. For that to be the case, you need to be at least 20% sure, perhaps 25%, that you're ahead now (i.e. against two overpairs). I think that's quite hopeful, to be honest, so I think that makes it a marginal fold, based on the information presented.

Monk
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[iceman5]

Thats a tough one. I cant see UTG having a boat unless hes doing a great acting job.
I also cant see SB going all with a HUGE overbet with a flush or boat. It looks like hes trying to represent the flush or like Monk said, he has something like TT with the .

You said he plays his good hands fast and usually wins with no showdown so how do you know they were good hands if you didnt see his cards? He might make alot of big overbet semi bluffs like this would be if he had [Td] or [Jd].

I think I would call, but I wouldnt be overly confident of course.

[Mad Genius]

[iceman5]

Without the , I fold, but since you have it I think you have to call. Also, your earlier bluff may have led to this big overbet. Thats the one problem with showing a bluff. Sometimes people will make plays at you later.

[kennyg]

MG,

When I saw the bet and call, I would cry and leave. This game is too above my head! My little adventures on Gaming Club never include monster hands and decisons like the ones you seem to have all the time!

I bow down to your poker prowess. seriously!

[Mad Genius]

RESULTS:

As expected, I called the all-in. SB turned over [6c] for the big draw on the flop and the turned flush. UTG had Jacks with . I was drawing to 8 outs - 4 clubs, 2 twos, and 2 aces, since 2 of the clubs would give SB a straight-flush. The river was a harmless King and SB dragged a big pot. What do you think about SB's play throughout the hand? I personally think he played it poorly on the flop, although his decision to move-in on the turn is probably good if he correctly read me on a big pair. Also, in UTGs position can you make the call? I'm 90% sure I would have folded that but I can see how the call can be justified, given SBs style, the size of the pot, and that he had a fairly big club.

I know hindsight is 20/20, but in retrospect I think I should have bet more on the flop. If I bet $100 or $120, the pot is much bigger and SB is less likely to be bluffing if he makes that same bet on the turn. As it was, I was afraid SB was sensing weakness in my flop bet and decides to use the stop-n-go without a great hand. Other than that I would probably make the call again given all the circumstances. I rebought after some time and was able to work myself back to $900, finishing the day only down $100. Looks like I will have to keep testing my luck in this game.

[Felonius_Monk]

I reckon the 5c6c should check-raise the flop if he really has you on an overpair, if he reckons there's any chance you'll put him on a set. If he has you on a big overpair that you're simply not going to lay down, then I think the best thing for him to do is to call along. With no fold equity it's going to be about 50:50 (him slight favourite actually), so there's no reason for him to push his stack in just yet, until he hits. The only advantage (in that instance) that I can see to him check-raising is perhaps to push out overcards with a flush draw in the hand of either opponent.

However, as your hand is not yet defined (you could still have a weak overpair or AK that you might just lay down) I don't think it's a bad play here for him to make a big raise on the flop.

I would never make the UTG call, I don't think. There's simply too many ways he can be losing here for it to be very smart.

As for your play, I think you played OK and I don't particularly mind your bet on the flop. Given you hold the A[c], it seems mighty unlikely there's a flush draw out, and you DO want overcards and smaller overpairs in the mix, so I don't see any need to pot bet here. Personally, I think it would be marginally better to fold than call the all-in bet and call, and for such a large sum I *probably* would've folded myself, but in the heat of the action it's easy to convince yourself you're ahead and I think there's an argument here to say that you might just be.

Monk
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