what can you do with this hand

[Raisor]

Game #835767164: Omaha High Pot Limit ($0.50/$1) - 2005/09/07 - 05:09:14 (ET)
Table "Snowball" Seat 9 is the button.
Seat 1: raisor76 ($104 in chips)
Seat 2: kad97 ($199.04 in chips)
Seat 3: Peterpihl ($79 in chips)
Seat 4: Luup08 ($252.49 in chips)
Seat 5: chliapas ($73.64 in chips)
Seat 6: Mr__burns ($291.45 in chips)
Seat 7: TweetyB ($23 in chips)
Seat 8: yinyan ($117.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Refranko ($110.75 in chips)
Seat 10: walfish ($146 in chips)
walfish: posts small blind $0.50
raisor76: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to raisor76 [9h Ac 8d Ah]
kad97: calls $1
Peterpihl: folds
Luup08: folds
Luup08 sits out
chliapas: calls $1
Mr__burns: calls $1
TweetyB: folds
yinyan: folds
Luup08 sits back
Refranko: folds
walfish: calls $0.50
raisor76: checks
----- FLOP ----- [Th 2d 4h]
walfish: bets $5
raisor76: calls $5
Refranko leaves the table
kad97: raises to $25
chliapas: folds
Mr__burns: folds
walfish: folds
raisor76: calls $20
----- TURN ----- [Th 2d 4h][6d],
raisor76: bets $24
kad97: raises to $132


i have been trying to mix in some half-ish pot size bets in my play to mix things up a bit. i figured him for a set with his reraise, wanted some advice of how to play it knowing that.

[euri10]

u have no other choice than to fold against a set + str8 draw that he plays well imho

[Felonius_Monk]

I think given the stacks that you have, calling the raise on the flop is a little bit loose. However, leading the turn is crazy. The opponent in question is quite loose but not a fool, and is going to bust you back with a set, which he most likely has. I think I'd check the turn and hope for a smaller, more manageable bet. If he fires a pot-sized bet again, I wouldn't call unless I was convinced I could get a bet out of him on a river (which with this guy is a possibility but I'd err on the side of caution and fold).

Anothery Crypto-ite on the board... will have to look out for you on the tables. If you continue posting Crypto hands you'll probably inadvertently find one with me on it, in secret identity

[Raisor]

[Raisor]

so i guess i learned i have to save those flush draws for at least three way pots, right?

[Felonius_Monk]

The problem you have on the flop is that you're only getting ONE card for your full pot call. That is, you're paying a 2-1 proposition to see a turn whereby you hit (ASSUMING he doesn't have any of your outs covered, likely he has at least one ace or heart) less than 3-1. On the turn, given his flop raise suggests a set, he'll make you pay ANOTHER pot bet to get there. So you're really only getting one card for your money.

Additionally, there's one guy who bets pot first up (so he might have some of your outs covered with some sort of drawing hand including hearts)

That said, if you think this guy will put in the last pot sized call if you hit your hand (which I think he might, from memory) then it's an OK call because of your implied odds.

Let's look at the possibilities. Let's take a realistic stab at the probabilities - that is, assume he has one heart in his hand, and that he will call a turn bet 100% of the time when you hit an ace, and 50% of the time when you hit a flush.

3/4 of the time you miss, and lose $20. Net equity = 3/4 x 20 = -$15

7 of the remaining 40 cards give you a flush. That's 17.5%.

50% of the time that happens, you will bet and he folds, netting you a $40 profit on your call. So, 17.5% x 50% x $40 give net equity = +$3.50

50% of the time it happens, you will bet your remaining cash, he'll call, and you'll win on the river 3/4 of the time, for a total net win of the $40 in the pot plus the remaining $78 he can call that matches your stack = $118
So, 17.5% x 50% x 75% x $118 = +$7.75
Of course, the other 1/4 of the time, he makes his boat on the river, for a total net LOSS for your play of the $20 call plus your remaining $78, or $98:
So, 17.5% x 50% x 25% x -$98 = -$2.15

2 of the remaining 40 cards (5%) give you the top set, in which case he'll call down 100% of the time.

We'll assume the possibility of him sucking out on the river (through quads or some odd low straight hitting) is 5%.

So, 5% x 95% of the time you make the $118 profit = $5.60

And (for an ace to hit plus him sucking on the river) is 5% x 5% x -$98 = -next to nothing.

SO - we can summarise;

IF your opponent is evens (50%) to call or fold on a turned heart,
your equity for the $20 call is -

-$15
+$3.50
+$7.75
-$2.15
+$5.60

= -$0.30

So you lose a measley 30 cents on the call, given this proposition.

SO - for the call to be +EV, mathematically (and providing your opponent won't do anything dumb like max raising the flop then checking the turn, which, having played this guy a few times, I don't think is likely) you need to be only a LITTLE more than 50% sure he'll call a pot bet on the turn if you hit your flush. Though I don't really have enough of a read on this guy myself, I'd say he's not too bad so you might not quite have that figure covered. Against most Crypto $100PLO players (most 100plo players in general), you'll usually get that call, certainly more than 50% of the time.

SO - barring a read that a player is "tighter than average" when folding a set to a made flush, you would be generally correct to make the turn call. If this opponent calls a set into a flush board on the turn, say, 75% of the time, it's a +EV move. And you can always factor in a few random extra bits of equity for him doing something stupid, like timing out, having raised by accident, failing to bet a blank turn or a straightening card for fear of losing, etc etc, which swings the odds in your direction that little bit more, which can, again, make the call more +EV.

If the opponent is a calling station, it's an easy call.
If the stacks are very deep, or your opponent has no money left to charge you on a missed turn, it's an easy call.
If the opponent is all-in, knowing that (worst case scenario) you're never going to be far behind 1/3 equity and you could be up close to evens in some cases, it's an easy call.
If another player is in the hand, it's an easy call.

I'd only say it's a fold if the opponent in question is known to be very straightforward, very solid, and won't chase a full-pot bet on a flushed turn card, and there's no other opponents or dead money in the hand to swell the pot size. These type of opponents are relatively rare in most games, as people like to gamble it up in PLO.

In retrospect I think the flop call is fine 95%+ of the time, and probably in this case it was fine too.

Leading the turn is still a bit mad, though. Not the right place for trying to make a blocking bet.

Hope this helps.

Monk
xxxxx