The worst beat I've ever taken

[flafishy]

A followup: Seems to me that if he's that committed to the AK and he has such a positional disadvantage, he's got to go all-in preflop.

Personally, I would have raised it 12,000 with the idea that I let it go if there's trouble. So in this case, I fold to the all-in reraise.

P.S.: WTF is that previous post?

[Stoneburg]

[kennyg]

[wolvish]

I went allin with the AK here because the guy pushing was overly aggressive the whole time I played with him and, as Kenny said, if I won the hand I most likely would have won the tournament or come close. the real money was in the top 3 and I was taking a shot to get there.

I understand what you're saying Stone, about bad beats counting when the money goes in. That is normally how I look at it. However, I don't really see why it makes all that much of a difference. If we had gone allin on the flop instead of before it, I think we could all agree that this would be a bad beat. The way I'm looking at it is that once I hit my hand, he had to get really lucky in order to beat me. That's all. I'm not saying he wasn't ahead on the flop, or that he made a bad play. I also understand that his being favored before the flop included that 6% chance that he might hit the case queen.
Personally, I just think its a bad beat when, after I get a tad lucky to fop my hand, his remaining 4% decides to pull through in a situation where I would have been a huge favorite to win.

I guess what it comes down to is that I just don't really care all that much about the terminology.

Flafishy, I don't think going all in in first position with a hand as obviously week as AK is a good play, considering that I did have a decent stack. With a short stack, obviously I'll push it. Here, I called the allin because this player in particular was being very aggressive and had only gotten his stack by sucking out. I was watching him for awhile hoping he would make a move on me. I would have seriously considered folding to one any of the other bigger stacks since I did have a decent stack remaining. Going allin isn't the right play because if anyone calls me I'm most likely looking at a coinflip or a dominating hand. A 12,000 bet was enough to steal if noone had anything and little enough to let go if someone actually woke up with a huge hand. It just worked out that in this case, the fuktard actually had a hand.

[wolvish]

BTW, Tightie,

Stapher
Wolvish
Kennyg

Although I am the shortest.

[kennyg]

ha. you called him a fuktard.

[Horshak]

That beat does hurt, case queen to knock you out in 12th.

Not sure how much of a fan I am of the call tho in this spot. You open early with AKo and are called by shortish stack (11-12k?) and then a donk moves in for the balance of your stack ~34k. Making some assumptions here; lets say short stack has a range of any pocket pair, KQs - K9s, QJs - Q9s, J10s - J9s, 109s and Ako - J10o. Lets assume the donkey has a range that is AA - 66, AKs-A10s, AKo - AJo, KQs, QJs, KQo and KJo, the following equity numbers are you ~40%, shorty ~25, donk ~35. You have to call about 34k to win a pot of ~110. Makes your call slightly +ev (+10kish) with the rather loose range of hands on the donk pushing.

However, I would argue using my first rule of internet poker, which is that even donks get cards too, is that even tho he is an idiot and has been hyper aggressive, you are more likely to be shown a bigger hand here than not. Reason being is that he is risking a large chunk of his stack very close to the final table, in the event he is called, and you crush him. If you reduce his hand range slightly, to just AA-66, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo and KQs/KQ your equity drops to ~36%. Making the call marginally +ev (5kish). I would argue that his hand range is actually tighter, more in line with AKs/o - AQs/o and AA-maybe 99. In which case your equity is ~30%, making it slightly negative ev. You also have to take into account that some of your outs are dead by the shorty when he calls or you are already behind a small pocket which you have to fade as well. I find it hard to think of a shorty calling all in with less than 10 9s tho you could maybe talk me into 98/76/65 etc if he didnt have approx ~3bb (given your final pot of ~110k). I would be more apt to put him on an Ace x or two broadway, or pocket pair.

If you are playing on a site such as Bodog which doesn't have antes, I would be even more inclined to fold. You still have 34k which is 8+bb and the avg stack at the final table will be ~37k. I just think there is a better spot to get my money in before the bubble breaks for the final table than as either slightly positive ev to slightly negative ev. I also would rather have a made hand if possible and preferably big when call off my stack if humanly possible. I really don't think your equity in this pot is much over 30% anytime with AK here. I would guess it to be more in the ~27% camp. I have been able to win when making the final table with <4bb so although winning this hand greatly increases your chance of a top 3 finish, it also in the long run will leave you on the final table bubble in my opinion. I just don't think his hand range is that wide here 9 out of 10 times, donkey or not.

Sorry if I rambled or my numbers are off, but I've been drinking.

Best of luck

Shak

[flafishy]

Horshak, in much more detail, makes the same point I make. This point in the tournament is not the time to be playing the role of bluff police. Or to be on idiot patrol. Or however you want to look at it.

Had the idiot long stack merely called before the flop and then the flop hits you like it did, then you push it -- and then, in my opinion, you would be able to call this a "bad beat," though not a particularly onerous one.

But calling the all-in preflop, no matter what kind of read you had on this player, was a negative-value play.

AK is not the monster that most people take it to be. It's a great hand to raise and take the lead with. But it's a terrible hand to call with.

And I don't think many people would agree that you've taken a bad beat when you've put all your money in preflop with AK against QQ, no matter what the subsequent sequence of events.

[wolvish]

Bluff Police? Idiot Patrol?

Flafishy, it seems you have the wrong impression of why I called this guy, though I thought I already explained this. I wasn't out to get this guy, or catch him in a complete bluff, and I didn't have a grudge against him. I called because I had been playing with him for a long time and had seen him routinely be overly aggressive with much worse hands than AK. Since the short stack had pushed for just over my 12,000, it was quite possible, in my opinion, that he was trying to get me out of the pot to go heads up with shortie with a mediocore hand. Although he did have a hand this time, I still went into the pot only about a 6% underdog. After seeing what he had I really wasn't disappointed in my call. A chance to be a huge favorite and pretty much guarantee myself a place in the big money with AK against QQ was fine with me.

You guys can talk about -EV and how the numbers play out all day, but tournament poker is much more than just crunching numbers. It's about instinct, feel, taking risks, and knowing when to go for it. If I had folded this hand I would have been down to 28,000. Add in the BB and SB in the next two hands and I'm down to 22,000. Its very possible I could have come back from there and taken the tournament. But I was willing to put it allin with AK because I liked my chances and the potential benefits were particularly great.

I can't disagree with you that AK is not all that some people make it out to be, and is generally a love it or hate type of hand. But going heads up against a player known for making moves with suboptimal cards, AK looks pretty good to me.

Flafishy said:

"Had the idiot long stack merely called before the flop and then the flop hits you like it did, then you push it -- and then, in my opinion, you would be able to call this a "bad beat," though not a particularly onerous one."

Obviously that's not what happened. But if it had, you wouldn't find this beat particularly onerous? Are you kidding me? How much more onerous can a beat get? He would have been putting all his chips in with a 4% chance to win on the flop. It doesn't get much worse than that. Actually, I think the only thing worse would be a hand that is drawing dead to win with only a draw for the split.

BTW Horshak, great post.

[flafishy]

Wolvish said: "But I was willing to put it allin with AK because I liked my chances and the potential benefits were particularly great."

Which goes to my point that if you want to commit to this hand, then pushing to start the preflop action would have been correct. Calling an all-in reraise isn't.

I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree here. We're starting to talk in circles, and obviously neither of us will be swayed.

I'm hoping to get other opinions, one way or the other, but I guess they're not forthcoming.

[wolvish]

You're right, we may have to disagree. Which is fine.

However, I still disagree with pushing allin in first position with AK here. As I said earlier, against any other player I would have seriously considered letting it go. The main reason I called was because of the player who went over the top. I would go into it more, but, as Flafishy said, I've already posted about this.

[Horshak]

Thanks for the compliment Wolvish.

Flafishy, I can think of few situations where pushing for 12bb in ep is correct, and I don't think this is one of them.

[flafishy]

[kennyg]

[flafishy]

LOL. I still would like for others to chime in. Maybe the bad beat title of the thread is causing people to simply ignore it. Any way we could edit the title to reflect the new discussion, or start a new thread with a more enticing title?