Coordinated Flops

[Atorvastatin]

[Bob314]

[Atorvastatin]

Yeah, those are very similar to my thoughts. I must be running really bad right now, because this stuff is continually happening, especially with the suited flops and someone flopping a flush.

That .5% of the time number is the odds of flopping a flush with two suited cards right? Does that differ from the odds of another player at the table flopping a flush on a suited board? I don't think they'd be the same, but I've never seen nor heard a statistic of this?

[Rhound50]

Atorvastatin this sounds to me like a bad run of luck not bad play. Over the long run these things will even themselves out. For everytime someone flops a str8 with 85, there will be 5 times when someone playing an overpair, TPTK, or 2 pair. For every time someone flops a flush there will be more times that someone is playing one big flush card or the board will pair, even better the board will pair with the 4th flush card on the river and your opponant will have the A. At least thats what I hear, right now I cant catch a cold if I tried.

[TheUnknownPlayer]

If you are holding 2 suited cards you are 118:1 against flopping a flush

[k3nt]

It seems to me that the question Atorvastatin is asking is a little different.

On a three-flush board and X number of opponents seeing the flop, what are the chances that one of the opponents has the flush? (The answer is no doubt different depending on whether you yourself hold 0, 1, or 2 of the flush cards yourself.)

I have no clue about this one or how to go about calculating it. Anybody? (Probably belongs in the odds section?)

[Jav]

I'll give it a try with one opponent.

Let's say you're heads up against one other player and the flop comes all of one suit (and you have none of them).

The chance that their first card matches the suit is 10/47 (ten of the suit left and 47 unseen cards). The odds of the next card also being of that suit is 9/46, so the odds they just flopped a flush are 9/46 * 10/ 47 = 0.0416 or 4.16%. If you had one of the suits in your hand then it would be 3.33%.

Does that sound right?

[acesover]

[Atorvastatin]

Yes, I almost always limp with 99-22. You're suggesting raising with maybe 99-77 pf? I'd give anything a try right now.

Anyone else a mid pair pre-flop raiser? I switch it up and do now and then but definitely not constistently. What's your typical pf raise with these hands?

[Bob314]

If I'm going to be raising with 7-7 through 9-9 I am in late position and there are at most 2 limpers to me (And if there were 2 limpers I might only raise with 9-9 depending on when I last raised and how tight I think the table views me). I'll raise it the same I would any other hand that I raise preflop.

If you don't have position you are going to have to check-fold a lot of flops and if you do hit your set you aren't likely to get as much action on it because you were a preflop raiser. Raising might stop junk hands like 10-6 from seeing a flop and flopping a straight on a 7-8-9 board, but to be honest that isn't going to happen very often and when it does you just can't do anything about it. Even when it DOES happen you are only behind you will still win about a third of the time (cardplayer calculator).

Strictly speaking about flopping sets on coordinated boards, you just shouldn't worry about it too much.