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Aces vs AK 3 times in a row - Live Poker Forums

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Aces vs AK 3 times in a row

Want to know the odds of AA vs KK? What was the "expected value" when I reraised all in? Come find out!

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Aces vs AK 3 times in a row

Postby DeadNutts » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:19 pm

I was just playing at doylesroom in a $5.00 multitable tournament.

After about 10 minutes, I see this:
3 consecutive hands....
Hand 1: All in preflop - AA vs AK. AA wins, player 1 had AA, player x had AK.
Hand 2: All in preflop - AA vs AK. AA wins, player 1 had AA, player x had AK.
Hand 3: I get AK. I call the blind, player 1 goes all in. I think, what are the odds he could have pocket aces 3 times in a row and go all in preflop against AK 3 times in a row? I thought about it for a second and came up with 1 and a caquadruplegilion ^ 1000000. I called because I had to see it, and of course... I had to play the odds. He had it and I lost.

What are the actual odds of this happening? Assuming player 1 gets the aces all 3 times, and player X gets the AK, and there are 9 people at the table all 3 hands?

Thanks... if anyone can figure this one out.
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Postby k3nt » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:24 pm

Player 1 gets aces 3 straight hands: 1 in 221^3 or about 1 in 10.8 million.

Somebody else at the table gets AK at the same time, all three times.

I get a single player catching AK one time when two aces are dead as 0.65%. Multiply
by 9 assuming 9 opponents (which is not quite right, but pretty close) = 5.85%.

5.85% ^ 3 (happens 3 times) = 0.02%, or 2 times in 10,000

So 1 in 10.8 million * 2 in 10,000 = an overall chance of 2 chances in 100 billion. Give or take.

Does this look right?
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 5:36 pm

Looks right, and assuming billions of hands are played every day, these things gotta happen somewhere.
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Postby DeadNutts » Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:04 pm

Cool, thanks man. That will actually come in handy figuring out some other things. Like it matters though, when I tried to figure the odds out before playing the hand, I realized the number was going to be huge, so I played it. It's good to know what the real odds are though, and ya, it looks right. Thanks again.
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Postby k3nt » Wed Sep 28, 2005 8:50 am

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