Expected Value

[Tepshen73]

I read Aisthesis article on expected value and have a few questions. First off let me say I am very new to the competative world of poker. I have yet to play online yet just mainly very very loose games with friends. After just reading Phil Hellmuth's Play Poker Like the Pros I can see the diference between my friends and myself. I just bought Super System and The Theory of Poker and are reading them. Sorry about being so long to get to actual questions just figure a little back ground info would make it easier on who ever anwsers this.
In order to calculate EV you need to know how many outs they have as well as the number of remaining cards in deck?
AS a new player how important is EV to me right now?
On hands where I know I have the Nuts should I even worry about EV?

Thanks in advance
Tepshen

[Molina]

I've read Theory of Poker and thought the frst 60 pages were superb, though I think I've forgotten it all now.

I don't know if you play no limit or limit. I'd EV's are more easily quantifiable and important for limit, to my mind NL is a lot to do with implied odds 'If I hit my draw will he call a decent bet at the end? or is he only betting with second pair himself?'.

Also, battle-scarred experience here, but unless you flop the top end of a straight flush, you only have temprorary nuts. I once flopped top set on a Q-8-2 board, all the money wen in then with 1 opponent, he had 88 and of course caught the last 8. Tales are legion about runner-runner outdraws. This is why I don't slow play too much, plus sometimes the only way to make money on a true monster is to charge people on draws a little to hits cards that won't help them.

Never forget that it's easier to play a hand in late position.

Best of luck and I'm sure Super System 2 will be required reading when it comes out.

Molina

[Tepshen73]

I plan on playing NL/PL don't like Limit much.
Thanks Tepshen

[iceman5]

EV is a very complicated issue so your general question cant really be answered. You need more specific questions.
Yes, EV is important of course even for beginners, but it may be over your head at this point if you are just starting out.
The easiest form of EV in NL is when someone is all in. Of course, you cant really figure it until you see what cards he has, but you can make a calculated guess.

If you have examples from specific hands, then I can help you figure the EV.

[Tepshen73]

In Aisthesis article the example he uses his opponent has 11 outs with 44 cards remaining in the deck. With this his opponent has a has a 1 in 4 chance of winning. With a pot size of $160 and a bet of $60 dollards he calulates EV as
1/4x160-3/4x60=-5 which gives his opponent an EV of -5
.. hmmm Hey Ice would it be okay if the hands I post are play money? As of yet don't yet play for real money

[iceman5]

In the example, the guy has to call $60 to try to win $160.
He will lose $60 3 times= -$180
He will win $160 1 time= +$160
$180-$160= -$20
-$20 divided by 4 chances = -$5
Thats the formula for non math wizzes like me

Of course you can post play money hands. The EV calcs are the same. Just dont expect your opponents to make rational plays.

[Tepshen73]

Ok after reading the posts and the article a few more times I think what I really want to know. Is where he got the 1/4 and 3/4 from number of outs vs. the number of cards left. THe math part I got the part of the formula I need is where he got the 1/4 and 3/4 cause if thats where he got it from then every single hand would have a different formula and I will need to learn to read how many outs people have.

Thanks Tepshen

PS Thanks everyone for being patient with me on this.

[iceman5]