Pot Odds For A Draw

[StarlightCoast]

I have been mulling this over for awhile so let me know if I am off base here.

Let's take a typical $1/$2 scenario. I am in the BB with A9h and there are 2 callers and I get the free check. Flop is Qh 7c 2h. I check, EP2 bets $1, MP3 calls and it is to me. Now at this point there is $5 in the pot and pot odds say to call because I am getting odds of 5-1 so i call. Turn is a 2s. EP2 bets $2, MP3 folds and now it's my turn $8 in the pot, cost me $2 to call so again I am getting correct odds to call, but consider this:

While calling the turn bet would be correct because of the odds I am receiving what about the fact that $2 of those dollars in that pot I am basing my decision to call on were put in by me. Would this not make the decision to call wrong, since I am actually basing the pot odds to call not on how much of my opponents money I can win, but it is being based partially on money I myself have put in.

If we are going to make our decisions on pot odds, should they not be based on only the money my opponents have put in, since that is really the only money I would in fact be "winning"?

If we deduct the $2 I put in in the above example that would mean the amount of money I am basing my decision on is in fact only $6 and with only 3-1 odds I should fold.

Perhaps I am putting too much detail about calling with pot odds because once you put money in the pot it is not yours any longer, but if we are truly going to base our decisions on pot odds and truly make those decisions profitable, is it not vital to consider only the money you would actually be winning when deciding if it is a profitable play and not count the money you have put into this pot?

Comments welcome.

[T-Rod]

No... the $2 you put in are irrelevant to future calls because its a sunk cost. You cannot get it back no matter what you do, so it shouldn't enter your calculation. That $2 is lost forever because you can't make a decision that allows you to extract just those $2 separate from winning the entire pot. You have to base odds on the entire pot.

However, the point I think you are digging at is by calling on previous streets, you inadvertantly increase the pot giving you improved odds for calling on later streets. This is basically the problem of becoming pot comitted when you don't necessarily mean to (or similiarly "draw committed"). I HATE this and avoid it. I'm more likely to try to win the pot on the flop by betting large, hoping others fold but knowing I have a draw that could save me.

[StarlightCoast]

[k3nt]

In limit games, you can't do what trodgers wants you to do. But he's still right about the odds question. You do have odds to call on both the turn and the river.

Always ignore who put the money in the pot: it just doesn't matter. It's in the pot now. And you have a chance of winning it. So you should call if the pot is laying you the right odds.

It might help to imagine three situations.

Situation #1: just like you described.

Situation #2: same situation, except that you have a deal going with an opponent (a good friend!) that they will reimburse you everything you lose on the flop and the turn. Therefore, what you have committed to the pot is not "your" money, but his money.

Situation #3: same situation, except that you have a deal with all of your opponents that YOU will reimburse THEM for all of their bets on the flop and turn. What's in the pot right now is ENTIRELY your money.

Note that Situation #2 and Situation #3 are EXACTLY THE SAME as Situation #1, in terms of whether you should call the river. In either case, there is a $10 pot to be won and it'll cost you $2 to try to win it (total pot: $12). If you don't call, you won't win that $10. If you do call, you will win it more than 1 time in 6. So calling is +EV and you should do it.

Obviously, in situation #3, even if you win the pot you'll only be breaking even considering all of your bets combined. But considering only this bet, right now, calling remains the correct, +EV play. (The -EV play was agreeing to stake your opponents so generously in the first place.)

[Acidjoe]

[devilmollusk]

[wreck27]

[k3nt]

You can do it either way, just know what you're doing.

This is the way I think about it:

If you fold, you lose $0 and gain $0 every time.

Assuming you have 9 outs with 46 cards left:

If you call and miss, you lose $2 37 times: 37 x 2 = $74.
If you call and win, you get +$10 9 times. (You do not WIN your $2, you just get it back.) 9 x 10 = $90.

$90 > $74, so call.

[devilmollusk]

[k3nt]

No, it's not "either gross or net."
It is "what is the expected EV of THIS bet, RIGHT NOW."

If you fold, THIS BET costs you nothing.
If you call and lose, THIS BET costs you $2.
If you call and win, THIS BET gains you $10. (You put in $2 and get back $12)

[Zuccala]