Top set on a straight board

[briachek]

***** Hand History for Game 2808875691 *****
0/0 Omaha Game Table (PL) - Sat Oct 01 20:27:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 36658 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Ya_Fooboo ( $25)
Seat 2: CallidusBlue ( $27.05)
Seat 3: larboclu ( $37.30)
Seat 4: briachek4 ( $49.45)
Seat 5: jkhamr ( $39.15)
Seat 6: SABERTUUTH ( $11)
Seat 7: Robdorf ( $26.45)
Seat 8: pnutbutrq ( $24.35)
Seat 9: B4TTERY ( $52.60)
Seat 10: justtrustme ( $25)
larboclu posts small blind (0.10)
briachek4 posts big blind (0.25)
justtrustme posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to briachek4 [ Kh, Kd, Jh, 8d ]
jkhamr folds.
SABERTUUTH calls (0.25)
Robdorf folds.
pnutbutrq folds.
B4TTERY folds.
justtrustme checks.
Ya_Fooboo folds.
CallidusBlue folds.
larboclu calls (0.15)
briachek4 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9c, Ks, Qh ]
larboclu checks.
briachek4 checks.
SABERTUUTH checks.
justtrustme bets (0.75)
larboclu folds.
briachek4 calls (0.75)
SABERTUUTH calls (0.75)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
briachek4 checks.
SABERTUUTH checks.
justtrustme bets (1)
briachek4 calls (1)
SABERTUUTH could not respond in time.(disconnected)
SABERTUUTH Disconnect Protection enabled.
Creating main pot with $3.10 with players SABERTUUTH
** Dealing River ** : [ 4d ]
briachek4 checks.
justtrustme bets (5)
briachek4 folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $3.10 | Side Pot 1: $6.90 | Rake: $0.25
Board: [ 9c Ks Qh 2c 4d ]
SABERTUUTH balance $10, lost $1 [ 3s Ac Tc Ts ] [ a pair of tens -- Ks,Qh,Tc,Ts,9c ]
justtrustme balance $28, bet $7, collected $10, net +$3 [ 9s 5d 7c 9h ] [ three of a kind, nines -- Ks,Qh,9s,9h,9c ]

I would have won but I think that is a terrible flop for me since i see people play JT religiously. Should I have raised and folded to a push at any point or just taken the free cards to draw. What about the river? Do you still fold like I do? I could lead out and fold if raised.

[Felonius_Monk]

[Kuso]

I would be tempted to raise on the flop... I think that the response would give me a ton of info. It might also buy me a free card if he just calls.

Action plan:

- if reraised on flop, fold.

- if stop and go (call on flop and bet out on turn), i fold unless i improve.

- if called and checked to on turn, i take a card and fold to any bet unless i improve.


Also, the turn bet looks suspicious to me. If this guy has the straight, he's wanting to take the pot down then due to the flush draw being out. It's possible he has that covered, too, but unlikely.

[devilmollusk]

[Felonius_Monk]

[briachek]

[Kuso]

interesting that no one likes the raise on the flop -- one that likely would have taken down the pot. in retrospect, maybe a raise on the turn would have been better.

some questions that i would have asked that would have informed my decision:

- whose letting who draw? a raise on the flop could push out str8 draws (e.g., broadway), and a raise on the turn could have pushed out a flush draw and/or made the flush draw pay for missing.

- what is he holding that would inspire him to bet only $1 on the turn? my guess is "not the nuts". it looks like he's trying to buy the pot. if he had the str8, he would most likely have potted to push out the flush draw.

- what is my read on this player? ok, maybe this guy is a complete moron and plays like this with the nuts. i'm thinking most players at this level don't -- it seems like most of them jam whenever they get the chance (e.g., nut str8). do his pto/pahud stats suggest that he's different?

- if Villain or the other player has the str8 on the flop, what are the chances that i will get to see the turn and/or river cheaply? i'm thinking almost 0.

anyway, the more i look at the hand, i like raising on the turn more than the flop, but i definitely think that a flop raise can be justified at least some percentage of the time.

also, keep in mind that i really like selective aggression in cases like this. even if i have to fold to a reraise, it advertises that i will raise with less than the nuts. later when i do have the nuts, i will often get called down when i otherwise wouldn't. furthermore, this kind of aggression takes down a surprising number of pots.

ymmv