Fire on this turn?

[briachek]

***** Hand History for Game 2850621823 *****
0/0 Omaha Game Table (PL) - Tue Oct 11 21:44:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 36548 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: KateDaGrate ( $24.50)
Seat 2: esollliwu ( $23.70)
Seat 3: BreakingLib ( $24.15)
Seat 4: E_Money_5 ( $45.45)
Seat 5: QTpie33 ( $27.15)
Seat 6: bowlinhokie ( $23.50)
Seat 7: notmymoney88 ( $6.10)
Seat 8: SigismundoC ( $37.70)
Seat 9: jake1029 ( $25.70)
Seat 10: briachek1 ( $25.40)
jake1029 posts small blind (0.10)
briachek1 posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to briachek1 [ Jh, 2d, Qh, Qc ]
KateDaGrate folds.
esollliwu calls (0.25)
BreakingLib calls (0.25)
E_Money_5 folds.
QTpie33 folds.
bowlinhokie calls (0.25)
notmymoney88 folds.
SigismundoC folds.
jake1029 calls (0.15)
briachek1 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3s, Kd, Qs ]
jake1029 bets (1)
briachek1 raises (4.20) to 4.20
esollliwu folds.
BreakingLib folds.
bowlinhokie folds.
jake1029 calls (3.20)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9d ]
jake1029 checks.
briachek1 ????

If not, would you fire on a T, J or A?

[Kuso]

i really like the questions in your posts, but most of your questions i would decide based on reads or pto stats. not knowing anything about the player is a real handicap, imho.

assuming he is an average or losing player, just pulling it out of my a s s, i would put him on 2pr or TPTK with the nut flush draw -- regardless of what he has made now, I think he's married to the flush draw (as many people are at 25). as such, i would fire away. he most likely would have come over the top with KK (unless he held the suited A).

if he's a winning player, i put him on a str8 draw with a flush draw, and try to check down or call with odds to the boat.

as for the other cards you mention, again, it depends on reads. with no read, i would be tempted to fire and dump it if he comes over the top. if he calls, you still have redraws.

of course, the problem here is that if you check behind, you are likely going to face a bet on the river, and you will have no idea where you stand even if it's a blank. i won't even mentoin the crime of giving a free card.

[briachek]

well, many of the players you face on these tables and in real life will be unknowns so you can't depend on stats. I got to be dependent on them in NLHE so I don't used them yet (if at all) for omaha yet.

My question is why lead out the turn if you will fold. If he has a hand that beats you, he raises and you fold. If he doesn't have a hand that beats you, you only really fear the flush as pairing the board will likely win you the pot. Also, if he is beating you, you get a free card to boat up or you get him to bluff a worse hand on a river for a price you can pay if you don't boat.

[Kuso]

without getting too detailed...

i based my answer on the assumption that he is chasing a draw and will call a bet without proper odds. i think this is much more likely than a situation where he is beating you.

if he comes over the top, you can almost count on the fact that you're beaten. if he calls, you probably made him make a mistake, which is +EV in the long term.

you seem to assume that he will fold or raise, and i am saying that A LOT of donks will call and chase.

[briachek]

JT is a very likely draw to have so if he is chasing a draw and one of them hits, why fire into him when it could be 50/50 he has that hand?

[Kuso]

if you are afraid of JT, then check it down. there are plenty of hands that a bad player could be playing that you beat now -- JT is just one hand that he could have been holding. even if the odds of holding JT are 50/50, then your bet is still getting proper odds.

as a general rule, i prefer to be the aggressor. if i don't get rewarded in the short term, i get rewarded in the long term due to being seen as an "action player".

also, i should ask an important question... is this at party or skins? if skins, i'm probably playing more towards weak tight (so i check here), as it seems to me that most of the players on the skins are ubertight bonus whores who don't give action without the nuts and like to trap (there are a few exceptions -- again, pto stats are useful for this). i am assuming party, which perhaps is an incorrect assumption.

fwiw, at the plo8 tables, party is back to how i like it, and the skins are frighteningly tight (although still beatable if you grind). i saw a full table of plo8 yesterday with a vpip of 17%.

[briachek]