Hand occurred last night; I've been doing pretty poorly grinding away at the limit games and usually extremely tight (but bluffable) NL tables here. The game is $200 NL, the blinds are $0.50 and $1.
I get TT on the SB. The table is seven handed. UTG, who has been raising a lot and giving a fair bit of action for these tables, makes it $3 to go preflop. I think he is a real action player, though I haven't seen him show down much so far (not a lot of hands going to showdown as usual on this site). UTG+1, a relatively loose player (I think) calls. It folds to me and I call, BB folds.
Flop comes 9[h] 7[c] 5[h]. I check to see what happens (I don't like my overpair that much here with the stacks so deep). UTG leads out for a weedy $4 into the $10 pot. That kinda sucks. UTG+1 folds. I decide to take a look at where I'm at and make it another $15 to go. He smooth calls.
Turn is 4[s]
Well, that hasn't changed anything, most likely. There's nearly $50 in the pot, I bet out $40 and hope he'll fold what I suspect is overcards, perhaps with a flush draw. If he raises here I'm done. I still have a feeling that JJ is possible, and maybe just maybe 99 or 77 for the set. I can't see him playing QQ, KK or AA so passively unless he's of a mind to badly slowplay AA, this guy is loose and quite aggressive. I think it's likely I'm ahead here. He calls, pot is now about $125.
River 5[s].
OK so that's changed nothing, but I'm still not 100% what he has. I think about throwing out a blocker here in case he has JJ or something and calls it down, with the intention of folding to a raise. In the end I decide I'll check and try to keep it manageable.
He moves all in for his last $130. So much for keeping it manageable. My first thought, and my thought all along here, was that this guy didn't have much. He's been betting and raising aggressively all the way through, and suddenly he's making weak leads and weak calls on flop and turn with draws out? I can't see an overpair here, unless he's been cautious with JJ and is now going a little crazy. The massive overbet looks like such a bluff, if he has a higher PP given the way he's played it he might check or bet small, and if he had something like a set that's now a boat surely he'd make more of a value bet. In these situations I'm prone to call, often more than I should do, but in this case I really thought I had the guy, with my not-very-good hand, unless he had JJ, which I still think he'd have played harder earlier.
I take a deep breath and call. He flips up A[h] 7[h] and the almost-$400 pot is all mine. He says "good call" and it takes a great amount of restraint to not sarcastically type "good bet" . At least he pretty much had odds to call on the flop (the turn is more troublesome as the only out I'd pay off would've been one of the two remaining 7s, as I thought he might have overs with a flush draw).
It's been a grind so far over at absolute and i'm looking forwardto firing up some of the bigger O8 and PLO games on stars and gaming club this weekend . At least in the midst of the grind I've cleared a third of the $235 bonus and made an additional $100 or so profit to boot. My nominal $2000 target for the month is smoked already once I get my empire rake rebate money through, so although I've been playing a lot I'm generally happy with things right now, monthly BR report to follow in a week or so
Monk
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