Can't let him have it, can I?

[Ojingo]

$100 PLO on UB. Opponent in the hand plays fairly passive and has about $110. I have him covered. I have done a lot of folding for the past 30 mins and haven't been caught bluffing. I took down only one smallish orphan pot on the turn.

I have TJQK rainbow in the SB. One limper and I complete.
Flop: [9h][Ks].
I have only one spade, no hearts.
I check, opponent in MP bets $1 into $4 pot. One caller in LP, and I raise to $12.
Only MP opponent calls.

Turn: .
I bet pot, opponent hesitates but calls.

River: .
Pot is about $70.
I bet $40 and he calls with a baby flush
(he had [7s][8d][9d]).

Questions: I know I took a risky and aggressive line, but I felt that he couldn't call a full pot bet on the turn, since I put him on the nut flush draw. Anyone just give up and hope for a free card?
On the river, my only chance to win the pot is by convincing him I have the boat. I have to be right about one in three times here to make the bluff correct (aside from possible image considerations). He has to be about 30% certain his hand is good to make the call. This is the combined chance of me bluffing and of me not having a higher flush.

Would you fold in his hand? Not many people at this level push a semibluff on all streets, and in his case I think he should even think of letting the nut flush go... I really felt that I should be able to make him fold this hand on the river, so maybe the amount was wrong.

Any thoughts appreciated,

Pieter

ps. I have a new account name - my old one was Hofstra. No need to welcome me to the forum

[Felonius_Monk]

Hey, squid-boy, long time no see!

I like your line all the way along. If there's more money to bet on the river I'd bet it, unless you're up against a real goober who'll call with a flush when you "obviously" have a boat (or unless your image is very LAGgy). Which is what happened .

If you reckon he's the type to call down a flush I still think you should bet something on the river to discourage bluffs.

[lamaros]

[philsafc]

I disagree. You have a str8 draw on the flop but one which could get there and still lose to the flush.

Agree your opponent's play is bad, but not a big fan of yours either. He's letting you draw at your hand cheaply with that $1 bet so why not say "thanks" and take him up on the offer.

[Ojingo]

philsafc, my main question was about the river bet, but the point you make has merit. Let me explain why I raise the flop here.

First of all, it is often the case that when people make a silly $1 bet, they are either drawing and want to see the next card cheaply (so their bet is sort of a blocker) or they think that betting small is a good way to build a pot, or they have a weak two-pair or bottom set sort of hand that they are insecure of. Now, regardless of what I have in my hand, I will often put in a raise here. I represent a set, and most of the time I take the pot there. If not, I will take it most of the time on the turn or the river, unless the flush actually hits. This is all completely independent of my actual holding. The fact that I have a big straight draw only makes the play stronger, since now I have more ways to win the hand.
Playing a wrap straight fast can also have the added advantage (although it clearly didn't work out here) that you force out people with two pair hands, medium flush draws, or similar draws.
Another point is that I want my opponents to be guessing whether I'm driving the betting with a draw or with a big made hand like top set. There is incredible profit in that, since people will pay you off much more and you will win huge pots when a disguised draw hits.

In some cases I agree that you should be happy with the cheap card and take it, but in this hand I wasn't really looking to make any straight; I was only looking to move my opponent off his draw. Clearly I picked the wrong opponent for this move, but I still believe that raising takes down the pot most of the times there.

Pieter

ps I really hate people who make these spineless min bets, and I think they should be punished for it...

[philsafc]

[Felonius_Monk]

I'm on ojingo's side re: the flop argument, but against certain hyper-loose goons calling is probably better. The river play is very opponent-specific but against most players (and certainly barring a read) I think you have to fire something there.