Huge draw, how do u play it?

[Suhleafs]

Ok stacks
me about 195
him about 150.

1/2 Prima NL

I have AKc utg, so I make a raise to 8. Called by the SB, I play with this guy often. I know he's not a bad player, but he's usually down at my tables, maybe he's just having bad luck. Pot is around 16.50.

The flop is Js Tc 7c. I have a huge draw, nut flush, nut straight, and hopefully 2 overcards?

I lead out for 15, he check raises me to 45, this is not a play I normally make, but I reraised him all in for 110 more. To my dismay, he called.

What does he have? And do you guys make a similar play in this spot? Results to come.....

[kennyg]

I like this play. A call is obviously out of the question.. With a reraise there is a decent possiblity he folds, and if he calls...you have a lot of outs and are probably 50/50 in the hand. (I assume your overs are worthless if he calls.)

I guess there's nothing wrong with folding here...but I'm more likely to try the reraise and take a shot at winning the $45 he just put in.

[TheUnknownPlayer]

You have 11 outs twice (ok 10.5) but if he has the set he probably has then you're still live - I make the same play. You've got a 33% chance of improving to a winner if he has your worst nightmare. As has been pointed out - he's going to throw away alot of hands that beat you currently with that raise and you've got to figure that into the equation. 33% doesn't say it all... If he'll throw away QJ, KJ, AJ, etc etc if you raise then you win automatically and don't need to improve. If he'll throw away 33% of the time and you improve 33% of the remaining 67% then you win with a re-raise 55% of the time.

You're going to lose sometimes but don't be afraid to move your chips.

[Nortonesque]

10.5? (And isn't that 12 outs?)

[Rhound50]

I make this play almost everytime. Like TUP said the worst case scenario you are a 2:1 underdog vs a set. You are almost even money 46/54 vs AA. You are 55/45 vs KK and the same vs QQ. Plus your reraise give you a lot of fold equity.

[TheUnknownPlayer]

Nortonesque,

You might be right but I count 11 outs on the turn and 10 on the river. 8 clubs and 3 queens (jack of clubs is no good). Whatever comes on the turn, if it isn't a club (let's say a deuce) then the club which pairs this card (in this case the deuce of clubs) would not be any good against a set so you then have 7 clubs and 3 queens on the river.

TUP

[Suhleafs]

Appreciate the quick responses

So yeah he called, Jack of clubs hits the turn, my heart rose then sank immediately when it occured to me that it paired the board. A ten of hearts makes 2 pair on the board, but he flips over QQ and I take down a nice pot

[Nortonesque]

Ah, against the set. Does 10.5 outs help do the math here? The set has a good redraw, so my simple 2% approximation breaks down.

[Mad Genius]

I think it's close between folding and pushing the flop. The one thing that would worry me is that he check-raised, as opposed to leading out. The reason I say this is because I rarely see people lead out with sets into the preflop raiser. If he has 77, TT, or JJ he's almost certainly playing it the exact way he does. One thing you'd have to ask yourself is if he would checkraise with a hand like AJ or 99. If he tends to be on the LAG side I go all-in. Against most rocks I think it's a muck.

[briachek]

Anyone consider that this guy could have had 89 for the flopped straight? That's better than him having a set because he wouldn't be able to improve better than the flush.

[Suhleafs]

bria, i gave it quick thought, but then quickly discounted that because he's too good a player to call a UTG raise when he is so out of position.

mad: if it were me and I had pocket 7s, i would for sure lead out my set, hoping to get raised, so I can pot-commit him for his stack.

[Bob314]

Suhleafs, it is all fine and good if you lead out with a set into the preflop raiser--we all know that it is a deceptive play. The reason it is deceptive because, as MG pointed out, MOST people won't lead with their sets into a preflop raiser. Even though you play a hand one way, many other people play it a variety of ways. All Mad Genius was pointing out was that in his experience you are more likely to be up against a set than you would normally be when you face a check raise here.

[Suhleafs]

No worries, yeah I do agree it would be different than how a lot of others would play that hand, if they had the set.
But if I know for sure that he has a set, he's saying he would let it go, against a "good" player I doubt I fold that considering the pott/implied odds

[briachek]

I know there is a difference between a good player and TUP, but he mentioned all types of hands, like 89s, that he would call a raise with in order to bust someone. If he believes you are a good players, he could put you on a few hands raising UTG, like AK, KK, or AA in particular. He has a deceptive hand against them so calling that raise could be a good chance to bust you. He had QQ so I guess he put you on AK or really believed you would fold AA, KK or had you completely wrong.

I was just tossing it out as a possibility.

[Suhleafs]

Yeah Bria good call on the AK bit from that guy's perspective.

That's exactly what he put me on, but didn't think I was suited and he thought I was just trying to make him make a good "laydown" but being superaggressive on the flop.