Nut low and 2nd pair

[GooperMC]

I posted this in my journal but didn't get any responses so I will post it here.

***** Hand History for Game 3032763116 *****
$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Sunday, November 13, 23:13:18 EDT 2005
Table Table 64713 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: No_Phil_Ivey ( $260.27 )
Seat 2: Zimeena ( $29.95 )
Seat 5: MotleyFool81 ( $284.47 )
Seat 7: pvmike ( $52.30 )
Seat 9: hound_dogg ( $142.15 )
Seat 4: kodiakaka ( $97 )
Seat 10: doanestyle ( $99.70 )
Seat 6: hamysan ( $110.90 )
Seat 8: Two_Sevn_Off ( $98 )
Seat 3: o1iOl ( $20 )
Two_Sevn_Off posts small blind [$0.50].
hound_dogg posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Two_Sevn_Off [ 2h 9c As 9h ]
doanestyle folds.
No_Phil_Ivey folds.
Zimeena folds.
kodiakaka folds.
MotleyFool81 calls [$1].
hamysan folds.
pvmike folds.
Two_Sevn_Off calls [$0.50].
hound_dogg checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Th, 7s ]
Two_Sevn_Off bets [$2.85].
hound_dogg calls [$2.85].
MotleyFool81 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
>You have options at Table 64699 (No DP) Table!.
Two_Sevn_Off bets [$8.30].
hound_dogg raises [$33.20].
Two_Sevn_Off ???

Hound_dogg is a bit of a calling station (loose: VP$IP 76, passive: TotalAgg .49).

I was a little bit worried that a generally passive player CRed me. I could be getting free-rolled or I could be up against another A2. If I am up against another A2 my guess is that on average I am a 60% favorite.

What do you do here?

[JDLush]

I'd venture to guess he's got 45 rather than A2, but A245 is not totally out of the question. You don't have any counterfeit protection, so at best you are taking 1/2 the pot most of the time. For that kind of money and the assumption that he is pushing you in on the river, it's a fold prolly 80% of the time. I'd only call if it was against a player that I know is capable of making a big bet like that with the top nuts without any regard to a low (a good play, imo). If it was a player that I know will pot any made nut low, then I have to really, really think about whether I want my almost certainly unimprovable 99 to 'protect' 1/2 my stack.

[GooperMC]

[briachek]

what is that turn bet supposed to accomplish? you have the nut low with virtually no high. You say he's loose/passive so you are building a pot that is likely to be split at best or you even may get quartered. What about checking the turn and calling any bet on the river or possibly betting yourself on the river if checked to?

[Kuso]

i hate these kinds of hands.

in the heat of battle, i think that i probably would have played it like you, folded on the turn to the raise, and regretted betting the turn.

i think the best way to play this is to try to showdown cheaply. my guess is that he has a str8 and a non-nut low and is trying to push off a flush draw. you might be getting quartered by A245 or A289, but this is statistically unlikely. as such, i think it is best to check-call the turn and check-call the river if your low is not counterfeited. bump up the aggression if you hit your nine or a spade flush comes.

this may be a bit too passive for some, but i think you are most likely playing for half the pot or less. the lack of counterfeit protection sucks, too.

hhmmm... ok, i would take the Gooper line if... IF the guy had a fold to turn bet stat of 40% or higher (i love you PAhud). if he's a real calling station (e.g., fold to turn bet <15-20% or so), then i don't think my equity in the pot is big enough to play aggressively with this hand oop.

yuck... did i mention i hate these kinds of hands?

[GooperMC]

[JDLush]