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Worst Beat in O8 History, somebody tell me the odds of this? - Live Poker Forums

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Worst Beat in O8 History, somebody tell me the odds of this?

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Worst Beat in O8 History, somebody tell me the odds of this?

Postby kdiddy33 » Tue Nov 15, 2005 3:37 pm

PLO8 cash game on FTP at 25c/50c.

I have ($45) and [Ah] [Ad] [2c] [4s]

From middle position I make it $1.30 to go, 2 callers.

Flop is [Ac] [2d] [Kc]

I bet the pot, one player re-raises me, the other folds. I immediately push all in and he calls to show:

[Kd] [Ks] [8d] [Tc]

Now given that he does not have a club or low draw, there is one card here that can beat me. Do I need to tell you what that is? that card is a K.

The turn is, you guessed it, a MOTHER PHCUKING [Kh]

Thus, making me the loser of $45 as this tool hits the case king. Anyone care to tell me what the odds of him hitting this card in this situation are? They are low enough to make me withdraw $1K from the site and seriously consider whether or not I should keep playing.

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Postby The Golden 1 » Tue Nov 15, 2005 5:15 pm

Isn't a one outer 148 (actually less for omaha, maybe one in 46?) so I'm gonna say somewhere between 2-5% . I've been runner runner two outed, that is literally the worst beat you can take (at least in holdem, I'm thinking of some crazy stud hi/lo situations right now... hahaha)
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Nov 15, 2005 5:40 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby Kuso » Tue Nov 15, 2005 5:46 pm

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Postby kdiddy33 » Tue Nov 15, 2005 6:39 pm

Good, you?
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Nov 15, 2005 7:01 pm

After rereading this I moved it to the bad beat section.
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Postby briachek » Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:13 am

the contest is between monk and rhound. I choose not to sulk over hands like that while monk and rhound cry like mvp after sex.
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Postby Rhound50 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 1:45 am

Brian might cry after sex but who really knows, no one can remeber that far back.

Monk does have an advantage on me omaha is a lot more likely to have one outters than holdem, but I have been "stuck on" 6 for the last couple months. Think monk has probably passed me by now.
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Postby LuparFiend » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:00 pm

correct me if I am wrong, but he had more outs than just 1.

he could have gotten runner runner diamonds to make a flush against your trips, and unless both of them were low cards, he would still scoop. (if turn comes [6d] and river [7d], you would have split.)

Also, a Q and a J on the turn and river would have given him a broadway straight to beat your trips.
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Postby briachek » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:15 am

Brian [Js][9s]
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