Playing middle pairs at the back end of a tourny

[Twelver]

[Cactus Jack]

You've probably chosen the most difficult and controversial hand you could imagine. We'll go round and round on this one and never get a consensus. Most times, I would raise 3 or 4 BBs, but you could also push this hand as well.

As you've outlined the situation, your M is about 9, which is high orange. Not a bad place, but if you bet 3BB, that puts you around 7. That's ok. But, if you're raised, you'll have a problem. 88 is a decent hand against most drawing hands, but you are in trouble against any pair which calls or raises you. OOP, this makes it tough.

Pushing, you have FE, plug first in vigorish, plus you take position out of the equation, with a stack that's big enough to hurt all but the biggest stacks. A lot to be said for pushing, depending on table flavor, how late it is in the tourney, etc.

Calling in hopes to getting a set is the worst, actually, because you're giving up too much value when you need chips.

I'll be interested to hear others thoughts.

CJ

[briachek]

[Twelver]

[Dumb Snowman]

[Twelver]

You are not in the money yet. Hypthetically lets say 120 people left...top 70 pay. Still play it the same way?

[Cactus Jack]

[CybrPunk]

I think the way you play these pairs changes drastically as your position at the table changes. UTG and UTG+1 these hands just aren't hands I would push at a full table. If we were short handed and I had the effective position of MP or later this would change, but at a full table you're more likely to run into hands that would look you up ranging from overpairs that dominate you 3:1 to overcards that you're only a slight favorite against. True, you need to take some gambles and coinflips to make it deep into most tournaments but I don't like pushing 66-88 in EP at a full table. I prefer to push and exploit my edges where I think that I'm a 60:40 favorite and with these medium pairs I just don't see that sizable edge from UTG and UTG+1.

Take the following pokerstove results against a somewhat loose range of the top 20% of hands calling you. You're even money here and thus this move is neutral to slightly negative EV. Following are results for 99-QQ which are better for this move in this position.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.9433 % 50.52% 00.42% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 49.0567 % 48.63% 00.42% { 88-66 }


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.9620 % 37.47% 00.49% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 62.0380 % 61.54% 00.49% { QQ-99 }



If we narrow the calling range down to the top 10% of hands this is clearly now a -EV move and now 99-QQ become only a 55:45 favorite to win.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4643 % 57.13% 00.34% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 42.5357 % 42.20% 00.34% { 88-66 }



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.3660 % 44.70% 00.67% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 54.6340 % 53.96% 00.67% { QQ-99 }


Based on these calculations I would say that medium pairs are not good hands to push in EP at a full table.

[Twelver]

[CybrPunk]

My default play with the smaller of these (66-88) in early position is to dump them. There are, of course, exceptions to this and they will mostly depend on table dynamics for me. If there has been very little preflop raising going on for an extended period, I know that lots of people are limping frequently and there are enough people with big stacks doing this I'll limp these in early hoping to hit a set. If I don't hit a set and the board has overcards to my PP, I'm most likely out of there since most people play picture cards (donkeys do all the time) and any high card on the flop in a multiway pot could have hit someone else very easily. Action after the flop would let me know this information. I might c-bet if we're only talking about one overcard on the flop and if met with any resistance I'm probably going to give the opponent credit for a better hand. Being out of position with these hands postflop does not create for easy decisions, so you need some form of implied odds to make the play worthwhile. Overall, I prefer playing these pairs against passive players as opposed to aggressive ones and that will also influence whether or not I'd consider playing these in EP. Of course, a table with very little prelop raising is passive by definition.

The last thing you want playing 88 UTG for a raise is to be looked up by a few players and end up in a multiway pot where you don't have the right implied odds to hit your set. 2 callers could spell disaster here and there's still 7 or more people to act after you. Versus 2 players calling with top 15% and top 10% hands, respectively, leaves you with 30% equity in this pot. If you tighten their calling ranges, you lose equity.

If you were in a short handed game you can play these in early position as you have the effective position of LMP or the CO and have much fewer people acting after you bet. These types of hands have much more value short handed and I'm likely to play them fast and hard hoping to steal blinds and antes and not be met with too much resistance. If I do get a caller in this situation I'm hoping to go in a favorite and win. What changes my willingness to play these short handed is the relative position UTG has when playing at a short table and the fact that you don't have as many people acting after you.

A 3-4xBB raise with 66-88 and only 13BB leaves your stack a little short and you don't have room to play very well postflop. I don't think I'm raising here. If I'm playing it's either limp, push or fold. I think folding > limping > pushing at a full table unless the dynamics are like what I described above.

This is, of course, in the situation you're referring to above where it's late in a tournament. Earlier on when the blinds and antes aren't a significan't portion of my stack I'd probably play these a little more often, but when we're talking about a significant investment of my stack I'd prefer to play something like this in position and wait for even stronger hands in early position.

With 99 and TT in this position I'm raising here.

[Twelver]

[JDLush]

[tunkpirate7]

[Horshak]

Nice posts cybrpunk.

[JDLush]