preflop decsion with AA

[briachek]

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

BB ($51.95)
Hero ($109.60)
UTG+1 ($89.95)
MP1 ($21.30)
MP2 ($16)
MP3 ($48.10)
CO ($10)
Button ($119.20)
SB ($41.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , , , .
Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $2.75, MP3 raises to $10, CO calls $10 (All-In), 3 folds, Hero ????

[Xaston]

[teknipper]

[briachek]

[JDLush]

Can hero post all the hands, or run them on 2dimes and post it?

I don't see how you can play PLO successfully and hate variance, but that could be me.

[briachek]

Here they are:

[Jh Jd 9d Td] -39.24%
[2s Ac 8s Ad]- 5.65%, tie 11.35%
[5c Ts 6c 7h] -34.68%
[Ah As Qs 5s] - 8.89%, tie 11.35%

with all that raising going on, what are the chances any of my Aces are out there and a decent chance someone has the other AA so I'm basically trying to tie him or edge him out with my weak side cards.

Why gamble it up preflop when I can get my money in better than maybe 35% chance of winning 4 way? I didn't know the pot would be 4 way if I was in but I knew it would at least be 3 way. I know i'm ahead preflop or pretty much tied but know that i am not a good chance to win. These are not like AA in holdem when you should never fold them preflop but in omaha, i think this is actually a clear fold with a 2-3 opponents willing to go in.

As for variance, this game is much less variance for me than NLHE. I think its easier to tell when you are ahead. I can fold with confidence but still get paid off nicely when i hit. I checked pt, and my standard deviation is pretty low at plo50, $36/100 hands, less than a buy in. Compare that to Kenny at NLHE full ring, i believe it was $770 or so at the NL400 level.

[JDLush]

There's no way to know for sure, but I think if you come over the top you get heads up with MP3 most likely and have the COs semi-dead money there as well. In that case then I can't see making the fold.

If you know you're going to be in a 4 way pot then I agree, it's not an easy call with a single suited ace hand, although your gappers are probably worth something as well.

I am obviously not the one to talk, but I think at some point you'll have to learn to embrace variance as you move up. I'm not saying I'm a fan of it at all, but as the skill level increases I think you have to be willing to push some smaller edges that you can avoid to at lower limits. That is just my opinion of course, and I very well may be wrong.

[briachek]

i do see your point about having to allow more variance but i don't see the CO folding after cold calling $10 preflop. This will be at least a 3 way pot and with a max raise and max reraise plus cold call, AA will be out there too many times for my taste and if not, at least my A's are dead and I'm not likely to improve.

[Ojingo]