bottom set and medium flush draw

[briachek]

PokerStars Game #3327727184: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/12/13 - 22:51:40 (ET)
Table 'Arete IV' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: csipcsup ($49.55 in chips)
Seat 2: biss411 ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: PokerCars ($13.45 in chips)
Seat 4: JPS501 ($10.45 in chips)
Seat 5: stryker1313 ($59.95 in chips)
Seat 6: briachek ($50 in chips)
Seat 7: trainwreck1 ($3.75 in chips)
Seat 8: roger2220 ($60 in chips)
Seat 9: DaBoooma ($20 in chips)
stryker1313: posts small blind $0.25
briachek: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to briachek [Jh 9h 2h 2s]
trainwreck1: calls $0.50
roger2220: calls $0.50
DaBoooma: calls $0.50
csipcsup: folds
biss411: folds
PokerCars: calls $0.50
JPS501: calls $0.50
stryker1313: calls $0.25
briachek: checks
*** FLOP *** [2d Kh 8h]
stryker1313: checks
briachek: bets $3.35
trainwreck1: calls $3.25 and is all-in
roger2220: folds
DaBoooma: raises $13.30 to $16.65
PokerCars: folds
JPS501: folds
stryker1313: folds
briachek: ???

very first hand at the table. he doesn't have much left so calling obviously isn't an option. I would think at least one of my hands is good, either the set or the flush draw. He could have both but do you push him in or fold?

[Ojingo]

[Felonius_Monk]

[Ojingo]

The only "excuse" I can find here for not folding is the fact that the money is shallow. Still, it will cost $16 for a $32 side pot and a $10 main pot. Now I wouldn't give the shortstack much credit for a hand, he may have as little as 2 pair or a weak flush draw, but do you really think that the other player is making an isolation raise with another weak hand often enough? For the side pot you have to win 50% of the time. There is no point for him in raising with a draw, since he would much rather have more callers. Your best scenario is if he wants to isolate with two pair and if the shortstack is drawing.
Also, the fact that it is an unraised pot makes it more likely that an 88 hand is out there.

Monk, can you tell why you think you win this often enough? How much money does he have to have in order for you to fold this?

[briachek]

before i give the results, I will say that I did push all in because of the stack sizes. If he had more, I would fold. I'm not sure how much more he would have had to have had for me to fold. I figured my hand was either good now or my flush was good as I don't give short stacks the respect to have a good enough hand to cover both my draws.

[Ojingo]

There seems to be a common agreement here that shortstacks are almost always bad players. Now, there is quite a bit of truth in that, especially at the lower levels, but there is a danger in not giving a shortstack credit for a hand.

Suppose that you would play with a short buyin for a while. Would you start pushing two pair hands for 40bb or weak draws? No, you'd be looking for hands with which you could push preflop. You know that if you are going to play then you would often have to go allin on the flop, which is not something you want to do with a shaky holding. Also, if you limp pf, you run the risk of it getting raised, in which case a call would cost you 10% or more of your stack. That means that you have to be fairly selective preflop, due to reduced implied odds and a lack of firepower on later streets to defend your hand.

Now, I know that many of the shortstacks at $50 PLO simply don't know what they are doing and buy in short because they think it takes away the headache of postflop play, but still you need some evidence that they are willing to push 40bb with a shaky hand.

I still say that the other guy had top two with a flush draw, or maybe a set of 8s.

[briachek]

[Ojingo]

Well, that's what I wanted to know from Monk.
If he has a set then your flush draw is probably good, but for the side pot you need to win 50% of the time, so if you knew for sure he had 88 then you should fold. If he has k8 with a better flushdraw then you have more than enough equity to play. So, it amounts to assigning percentages to how often you think he'll has which hand. Also, it would suck for you if the allin shortstack has a better draw. There's no other big draws there, so it wouldn't be unlikely that some hearts are out there.

[Felonius_Monk]

My thinking:

$16 to play a $42 pot, let's assume your 22 is good 30% of the time (seems reasonable, if even a bit conservative - this IS 50plo and he is a short stack and there are only two hands that beat you). Let's assume that you win 60% of the time when you hold the current winner (also possibly a little conservative).

So you win for a $26 profit 60% of the time (profit = $15.6) and lose your $16 stake 40% of the time (loss = $6.4) making a $9.2 profit 30% of the time = $2.80 profit.

The other 70% of the time we'll assume you have outs that win for you perhaps 30% of the total pot equity considering all the possible beating hands he might have (this seems reasonable - if the raiser has a set your flush draw is liable to be good, and you can always hit another 2 in any case, and the bd straight draw is worth a % or two. Also, sometimes (though unusually) you'll be beat by the shortest stack and still be winning the sidepot, so that's worth a few bucks too). So you win for a $26 profit 30% of the time (profit = $7.8) and lose your $16 stake 70% of the time (loss = $11.2) making a total loss of $3.40 70% of the time, or $2.40. This gives an overall profit of a princely 40 cents.

So you only need to be ahead in this pot something like 30% of the time to show a profit, albeit a tiny one. My thinking is that short stacks will push with less than 88 or KK often enough that you wil be ahead a sufficient amount of time here at this level to be able to call without a read. If I am the short stack I would play K8 the same way (there are nine permutations of K8 and only six combined pemutations of 88 or KK) and many players (at least in the crappy 100 and 200 games I play at crypto and party, even sometimes up to 400) will play short stacks because they like to gamble with draws, so you can't rule out the nut flush draw either. K2 and even 82 are other possibilities. I think there is a very high probability this player, given the little we know about him, pushes K8, and a reasonable possibility he pushes K2, as well as outside possibilities he pushes the nut flush draw, 82, or something like AA with a weak flush draw, or indeed that he's a complete LAG balloon (remember we know nothing about him!) and is pushing practically any four. Given there are only 6 possible permutations of 88 and KK, I would say it takes a fairly pessimistic outlook to believe you're not ahead more than the 30% or so of the time it takes to turn a profit on this proposition.

Given a regular 50plo player I'd reckon you'd be ahead here something like 40-50% of the time, which would turn you a reasonable EV profit on the hand in the $5-10 range.

My take on it anyhow.

Monk

[briachek]

ok, results.

I pushed, he called his last few bucks and had 88. Turn and river were offsuit T's and he wins with a boat. I forget what the real short stack had. My flush draw was good and I had the Quad draw so I had outs.

[Felonius_Monk]

Even given the fact he had 88 your total loss in EV terms was about 3 bucks I think, so it's hardly a disaster. Certainly not worth losing sleep over. Bare in mind he probably plays K8 the same way, at the very least.