Pot odds justify a call?

[Triple B]

[kennyg]

it's a really marginal situation. I'm find with a fold or a call really. Your on the short stack now...if you think he's weak..i'd go for it. I would have liked it better had you moved in first.

[flafishy]

I fold it like a tent. Not too many hands you can beat here unless he's on a total bluff, which isn't likely. Save your chips for a more favorable opportunity. It's not like you're in desperation mode.

[JDLush]

You're getting over 2:1, but you are a bigger than that dog to an overpair or a dominated AQ, AJ type of situation. If you can put him on a smaller pair it's an easy call. Hard to decide without a good read, but you can do it like Harrington recommends - what percentage of the time will you be really beat and what percentage are you a coinflip?

These numbers are completely off the top of my head, (in other words, feel free to correct them but don't say I'm an idiot, lol) but let's say:

Tier 1 - AA, KK, QQ - 4:1 dog - you win 20% of the time.
Tier 2 - AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JJ - 2:1 dog (?) - you win 33%
Tier 3 - TT and below (pairs) - 55/45 dog - you win 45%

We can rule out all other hands if you like, since it's pretty doubtful he does this with JT or something.

Now let's guess - put him on Tier 1 maybe 20% of the time = .2 x .2 = .04
Tier 2 - 50% of the time - .5 x .33 = .165
Tier 3 - 30% of the time - .3 x .45 = .135

.04 + .165 + .135 = .34 = you are about a 2:1 dog.

Assuming my numbers are close (they very well might not be), you are right on the edge between either a call or a fold. You are getting slightly better than 2:1, so if called it could be correct, but it's really a 50/50 shot here. What might sway me against calling is the fact that with all those limpers it's very possible a ton of your outs are gone. If you had KJ instead of QJ then the odds shift quite a bit in favor of calling, but I'd probably fold here and plan on moving in pretty soon with an M down below 8.

[Dumb Snowman]

[Triple B]

At the time I thought pot odds justified it, so I called. In retrospect, I think I needed a little better odds...really this was a marginal situation and I shouldn't have called off so much of my stack in this situation.

SB flips over KK...and proceeds to get quads. NH!

[Cactus Jack]