nut flush draw

[cholo loco]

poker stars plo hi 100 buy in game. about two orbits in and i have my original starting stack. i limp with ATsK5 and the pot is subsequently raised to 5. three people call and i call. the flop comes down Q95 with two spades giving me the nut flush draw and a gut shot. i check the pf raiser bets 10 and its (heads up). we both have similar stacks.
i think that with the implied odds i have an easy call but instead decide he may be pumping an over pair and i check raise to 30. he thinks for a long time and moves in on me. guess i should have thought of that earlier (actually i did but i goofed anyways). okay so thats not good. i probably have only 12 outs plus some backdoor possibilities.
its $55 to me and there is like 150 in the pot.
aside from not checkraising the flop (thoughts on that are still appreciated thopugh) what should my course of action be.
getting almost 3-1 seems like enough (thanks impart to my boneheaded beefing of the pot)
ty
matty

[Felonius_Monk]

Well, I certainly agree that check-raising the flop was a little excessively aggressive (though I would do the same in that spot if I was really SURE that his weak bet on the flop was indication of a "feeling" bet with a mediocre draw or overpair). If there's anyone else to act then raising would be extremely foolish (that flop has danger written all over it) but heads up and against a weak lead bet I reckon it's not too bad. However, he who lives by the sword can also die by it and all you achieved with this move was pot-committing yourself when you're a certain underdog. A better move is of course to merely take the good odds he's offering and call. I would think the raise is a very bad move if this player is a calling station, someone who overplays mediocre made hands (two pair, aces) or someone who is aggressive and will look to play for his stack with anything decent. The type of oponent you need for this play is a passive-weak player who will lay down non-nut hands and draws when faced with real aggression when he misses a hand like AAxx. If he didn't fit the bill, then yes, I'd say your raise was not very smart.

He probably either has a set or something like AA with a middle flush draw or wrap. Considering the worst case scenario, that he has a set with the same straight draw as you (i.e. that you can only improve to a flush to win, or a straight to tie) you still win one third of the time. The pot is paying you 3-1, and you can really call a pot-sized all in (2-1) with this hand. I estimate that against his possible range of holdings you probably hold somewhere in the region of 40% of the equity in this pot, so it's a pretty easy call.

As an aside, if his all in was for the whole pot I would consider folding here, and I would be incorrect in doing so because your hand (even against a set with the same wrap draw) is winning slightly over a third of the time. A nut flush draw against any sort of hand is always going to hold around 25% of the pot equity minimum, and will almost always be around 30% or slightly more.

Here's a quick and handy guide to the sort of all-in figures you're looking at on the flop with a nut flush draw:

Nut flush draw vs Set, with no blocking flush cards: You win ~30%
Nut flush draw vs Overpair of aces, with no blocking flush cards: You win ~45% (you can win by hitting a running pair as well as your draw)
Nut flush draw vs Straight with no blocking flush cards: You win ~40%
Nut flush draw vs top two pair with no blocking flush cards: You win ~45% (though this can vary greatly depending on the two pair, and the cards you have above it; it never really falls below 40% though).

For each blocking flush card in your opponent's hand, you lose around 3% equity.

These figures are, of course, for the flop.

On the turn, there's only one card left and either 40 unseen (if you know/guess an opponent's hand) or 44 unseen not considering your opponent, so you can work out your chance of winning by taking your number of outs as a % of the number of unseen cards. If you're sure all your outs are clean and not in your opponent's hand, you need 14 outs to call a pot sized raise on the turn which sets you all in; otherwise, 15 certain outs will be enough. If you have less than this number but some "possible" outs (i.e. straight outs you don't know are good, a baby flush in another suit, a two pair which may or may not be good if it improves to a boat etc) then you can consider those as an extra few % of equity to allow you to call.

These figures are worth memorising, and considering when making decisions like this also, check out the outs/win% table in my latest pot limit omaha article which considers "Betting Strategies in PLO" in the articles section on the front page www.livepokerforum.com

Hope this helps,

Monk
xxxxx

[cholo loco]

thank you for a very detailed reply. i agree with everything you said and those were the same sentiments i had although in omaha the exact numbers often excape me. hold em is east for me to figure out if the rare hand comes up that i dont know the exact odd but my omaha quik estimates are often off.
matty